Our main feature of interest will continue to be the pattern change next week that will bring fall-like weather back to the state along with some good rain chances for northeastern Oklahoma. The exact parameters and timing will continue to be refined as the system draws closer to the area but our timeline of a Tuesday frontal passage remains good at this point.
The main trough may hang back to the west Tuesday and should help to bring precipitation up and over the frontal region Tuesday night into Wednesday before exiting the area Wednesday evening into Thursday. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will settle across the central plains by the middle to end of next week helping to circulate cool and dry air into northern Oklahoma. Dew points currently in the lower 70s will be suppressed well southward with 40 and 50 degree dews across the northeastern third of the state by Thursday through next weekend. This wholesale pattern change will bring a nice taste of fall weather to the area with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower to mid-70s outside of rain-cooled locations that may be even cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.
Unfortunately, this will not occur this weekend and we're stuck with the summertime weather with lows near 70 and highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s along with south winds and muggy conditions. If there's any good news, the temps and humidity values will not be quite as high as the past few days with a noticeable cooling in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. A few small showers or storms may develop today or tonight across far south-central Oklahoma.
Otherwise, any showers or storms should be confined to the western third of the state this weekend other than a small chance of an isolated storm or two across eastern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon. Monday most of the rain and storms will be located to the west with increasing chances Tuesday into Wednesday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.