Good morning. We're moving into an active pattern that will bring thunderstorm chances back to the region, including later tonight through pre-dawn Wednesday morning across eastern OK. A few storms may be strong to severe to our west later tonight but the odds of significant severe weather across eastern OK will remain low late tonight into pre-dawn Wednesday.
A stronger storm system will be approaching the area Thursday that may last through the first half of the weekend with increasing severe weather threats and heavy rainfall potential. This 2nd system will have several waves with the first one impacting the area Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday morning.
Another round of thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday afternoon and evening with the final round early Saturday morning. Due to the recent heavy rain events across eastern OK, additional heavy rainfall will more than likely lead to some flooding potential in a few locations. Temperatures will remain warm today with highs in the lower to mid-80s along with increasing clouds and gusty south winds.
The first upper level wave will be nearing the state this afternoon and tonight. A dry line will become established across the high plains later today and move eastward as the trough begins to near the state. Strong to severe storms will develop this afternoon across far northwestern OK with all modes of severe weather possible.
A few more storms will develop southward across north Texas into southwestern or west central OK this evening and move east to northeast this evening. A few storms will near the I-35 corridor around 7pm to 10pm. Storms that develop out of southwestern OK will form a small complex of storms with a damaging wind threat while moving into the Arbuckles to central OK around midnight to 3 a.m. As this complex moves east it should begin to weaken by the 4am to 6am period, but few strong to severe storms may still be possible across eastern OK during the early morning hours. The odds for severe threats will remain low across eastern OK.
The upper level trough will quickly turn and lift northeast early tomorrow morning leaving the precip with little support. The result should be a quick demise.
The 2nd and stronger upper level system will quickly drop down the western U.S. and cause the next surface low to form across southeastern Colorado or northwestern OK Wednesday into Thursday. South winds will pump low level moisture directly into the developing system with storms likely by Thursday night into Friday morning. Severe weather will be possible. This first round may begin to wan by Friday morning. Additional storms will be likely Friday afternoon and evening across central to eastern OK with severe weather threats along with increasing heavy rainfall chances. The data support the surface low to once again take a slightly southern route with the frontal passage occurring early Saturday morning. This means the severe weather threats will be transitioning to more of a heavy rainfall event.
We do have some conflicting data regarding the outcome of the trough. The EURO continue to be the slower of the two compared to GFS data and would require us to keep a much higher pop for Sunday. At this point we're sticking with more of a GFS blend.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.