Warm, Dry Forecast Till Later Next Week.

After a cool start to our day, temperatures managed to make it into the 70s this afternoon, but still well below normal.  Notice the max/min temperatures across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  For Tulsa, the max/min has been 72/43 so far today and here are the normal values for this time of year..

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For tonight, look for our skies to become clear and those gusty winds to subside to only 5-10 mph by morning.  That means another cool start to our day with temperatures dropping into the low-mid 40s to start the day Friday.  As we go through the day, only a very few fair weather cumulus clouds are expected so lots more sunshine and also a much lighter NW breeze.  That should allow our daytime highs to reach the mid 70s which is still just below normal for this time of year.

As you can see on our forecast page, after that things will really start warming up.  A return to southerly winds together with lots of sunshine should bring our daytime highs to above normal levels for the weekend and through early next week.  Our nights will also be warmer as temperatures will be generally running in the 50s to lower 60s at night and lower 80s during the day.  Together with all the sunshine, that also means caution is advised with regard to outdoor activities as it will not take long to get sunburned.  Notice the UV index for the coming days is running on the high side as might be expected.

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Given the mostly sunny skies and warmer conditions, that also means we will be dry through the weekend and well into next week.  Of course, this is May which is typically our wettest month of the year so you know it cannot last for too long.  The blocking pattern aloft mentioned in previous blogs will eventually break down allowing another storm system to come this way.  As is usually the case in such a pattern, the longer range guidance is not exhibiting much consistency with regard to the timing and intensity.  The data runs so far today have continued to reflect the fast bias of the GFS which by all accounts is an outlier.  It would suggest showers and storms moving in on Wednesday, but a slower solution is favored which would delay the onset of showers/storms into the Thursday morning time frame.  Perhaps a minor point as this looks to be potentially another wet system.  At least, the slower solution would provide us another day to dry out before the next round of showers/storms moves back in.

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Notice the 5 day QPF, valid through this coming Tuesday, keeps us high and dry whereas the 7 day QPF, through Thursday, suggests the potential for another inch or so of rainfall.  Current thinking is that most if not all of that will fall on Thursday and the amounts are certainly subject to revision in the days to come.

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After that, the 8-14 day outlook suggests another return to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures.  The data also suggest the potential for another blocking pattern to set up which would keep us with a more stable pattern during that time period.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot