A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible this morning across part of Northern Oklahoma, but higher chances will be arriving later this afternoon and tonight as a slow-moving front stalls across part of southern Kansas. A few strong to severe storms will be a possibility late this afternoon through the evening hours with damaging downburst of wind and hail the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a possibility, but some locations across Southern sections of the area will miss out on thunderstorm activity. This morning’s data is also less optimistic for storms Friday afternoon and Saturday for northern OK after the early Friday morning hours.
Temperatures this morning are warmer compared to yesterday at this hour. Readings in the lower and 70s will quickly move into the upper 80s through the noon hour and back into the lower or mid-nineties by later this afternoon. South winds around 10 mph will be likely along with increasing clouds. A small left-over MCS may survive the trip to southern Kansas by 10am to noon and could cross into the northern OK area around noon before falling apart. There will also be a chance for a few isolated showers or storms this morning across the northern OK area with some minor forcing overspreading the area.
By late this afternoon into the early evening hours, scattered storms will first develop across part of Southern Kansas and then spread across Northeastern Oklahoma later this evening. Pockets of moderate heavy rainfall will be a possibility in this zone from Southern Kansas into Northern Oklahoma, roughly along and north of Highway 412. I need to stress that some locations, even within this zone, will remain void of precipitation. And locations across Southern Oklahoma may be too far south for this thunderstorm activity.
After the early Friday morning period, the trend will be for storms to lift away from the state line. A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to once again build Eastward across the state. This will effectively keep most storm activity across part of Kansas Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will move back into the mid or upper 90s Saturday across Northeastern Oklahoma along with sunshine and a few clouds. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a few showers or storms will be a possibility, but the higher chances may arrive late Sunday afternoon and evening as the front moves southward again. If the current timing continues to hold, the higher chance for storm activity will be late Sunday night into pre-dawn Monday. After the early Monday morning hours, storms should be exiting Eastern Oklahoma allowing for partly to mostly sunny conditions on the 4th with daytime highs in the lower to 90s.
Most of the extended model data support a mid-level ridge of high pressure expanding across the state by the middle of next week. This will allow daytime highs to reach near triple digits Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!