Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Several Systems Headed To Oklahoma

Another chilly morning is underway with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s along with partly cloudy conditions.   A return to east and southeasterly winds will signal an approaching short wave trough in the upper air flow that will bring a slight chance of some very light precipitation across the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.    Another wave arrives Wednesday night into Thursday with a stronger system nearing the area this weekend but some inconsistencies remain in the data.  

The first wave will approach the area late tonight into early Wednesday morning with a low chance for some light shower activity near and east of the metro.   The arrival of this light precip could fall within a favorable window for some light winter mix pre-dawn Wednesday across far northeastern OK.   But the latest model runs indicate very little moisture will be available.   Regardless, we’ll keep the mention of a possible mix in the forecast.  Temperatures will quickly move up from the overnight lows after the pre-dawn Wednesday hours eliminating any wintry threat after those early hours.    This first wave will quickly move east out of the state by midday.

The second wave arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and appears to be a stronger system compared to the Tuesday night disturbance.   Low level moisture, however, will be positioned across the extreme eastern sections of the state into Western Arkansas after the early Wednesday morning hours.  This chance will remain the highest chance in the short-term and temperatures will remain in the 40s for lows and lower 50s for highs.

The next wave will approach the area sometime this weekend and has been trending more northward compared to previous model runs in some model runs.   This is problematic due to the inconsistencies from a run to run standpoint.

Friday a strong cold front will move across the state and should bring much colder air to the area both Saturday and Sunday.   Today’s data suggest the Saturday wave will bring precipitation across the northwestern and central part of the state Saturday midday to afternoon before diving across southeastern OK late Saturday night.   The expected temperature profile in the data has trended much colder and would support some snow with this system.   Yesterday’s data brought this precip across our immediate area while this morning’s data suggest it will remain west and south. There’s still many days left before we draw near the event and the data may still change significantly.   The bottom line for the weekend:  much colder air arriving with a slight chance of precipitation Saturday.  

Precip chances:   Late tonight-Wednesday morning- approximately 1am to 7am window-northern OK- light mix changing to light showers.   No significant issues expected.   Additional light showers may linger for a few hours mid-morning.

Wed pm-Thu am-   Light rain more likely through midday.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV