Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Goodbye Summer

Tuesday, September 22nd 2015, 9:17 pm
By: News On 6

Goodbye summer, at least according to the calendar which has the Autumn Equinox occurring at about 3:22 a.m. Wednesday morning.

As you can see from the max/min temperature map for today, this last day of summer was a very warm one across the state. And, as you can see on our forecast page, the first day of autumn will have more of the same, with above normal temperatures continuing not only for Wednesday but right on through the coming weekend and into next week. The normal max/min for today in Tulsa is 81/59 but by the end of the month it will have dropped to 78/56.

The above normal temperatures will be, in spite of a weak front that will arrive along about Friday morning, shifting our winds from a SE direction for Wed/Thu to a more NE direction on Friday. However, this is a very weak system and temperatures will not cool off more than a couple of degrees. In other words, near to above normal temperatures will be the general rule for the first days of autumn.

Also, the chances of any measurable precipitation will be hard to come by during the coming 7 day period.  Notice the 7-day QPF map for example and you can see E OK will be high and dry or at most with only a slight chance of a light shower or two. A system affecting the more western counties over the next few days will provide better chances of rain out there, but E OK will be on the eastern fringe of that activity, so at best only an isolated shower or two may occur, and the chances are too low to put a probability of precipitation on the forecast map.

Looking further down the road, this rather stable pattern looks to persist right on through the end of the month. As you can see on the 6-10-day outlook graphics, there is a dominant signal supporting above normal temperatures through that time frame and the prospects for any significant moisture appear to be slim at best during that period as well.

A look back at this past summer reveals it was much wetter than the drought years of the past 4 summers, so we have certainly had some relief in that regard. Also, as mentioned in a previous blog, there have only been 3 triple digit days for Tulsa and basically none for the outlying rural areas this past summer, so the heat was not as oppressive as summer can be.

The summer as a whole was warmer than normal and wetter than normal with the month of August noteworthy for being the exception in that regard with cooler than normal conditions, but still above normal with respect to precipitation. So far, the month of September is running well above normal with respect to temperatures and close to normal with respect to precipitation.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot