Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Enjoy The Sunshine, Rain Returning Soon

Tuesday, May 12th 2015, 4:05 am
By: Alan Crone

Enjoy today's wonderful weather, because later tonight into Wednesday, the pattern reverts back to a humid, cloudy and active period with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances.   A weak southwesterly flow system nears the area Wednesday with a stronger upper level system influencing the southern and central plains this weekend.   The result will be increasing thunderstorm chances.   Friday into the weekend will feature a chance of strong to severe storms across the state.  Temperatures this morning are cool for this time of year.   Afternoon highs are expected in the lower 70s. 

Weather Alerts

Yesterday the weather was almost perfect with sunshine, a few clouds and highs in the upper 60s near 70.   We're still looking at a very nice weather-day with highs in the lower 70s and northeast winds, but later tonight the upper air flow will begin influencing our region with some noticeable changes.   This morning a surface ridge of high pressure remains a dominant influence across the northeastern third of the state.   The surface ridge slides eastward later today as the upper air flow brings a southwestern short-wave nearing the area by Wednesday.   This is the beginning of another active weather pattern. A few clouds will be arriving by midday across the region with increasing clouds later this afternoon and tonight. This will occur in response to a short-wave trough ejecting out of the Baja region and moving across part of Mexico into the high plains of Texas by early Wednesday.   This trough is located at the base of our main western U.S. trough located across the Pacific Northwest.   It's this “main trough” that will be the major player for the Friday and weekend forecast.  

Wednesday morning showers and storms will begin influencing locations across the western areas of north TX with rain and storms advancing northeast by midday to late afternoon.   Our forecast will keep Wednesday morning to midday dry, but will include the increasing rain and storm chances by late Wednesday into the evening hours.   Severe weather is not likely to occur but due to recent rainfall and saturated soils, some additional flood issues may arise for a few hours into pre-dawn Thursday.   A flash flood watch is already posted for the central portions of the state.   It's not impossible that few counties along or west of highway 75 would be included in subsequent watches.   By Thursday morning this short-wave will be lifting northeast of the state with decreasing rain chances midday.   The latest trajectory of data suggest this Wednesday evening-Thursday morning system may not bring too much activity across extreme eastern or east-central OK.  But the chances will remain.

Friday through the weekend our region will be located in a southerly flow-warm sector until sometime early next week.   A major upper level trough will drop from the Pacific Northwest into the upper mountain region and move eastward Friday into the weekend.   A strong jet streak is expected to round the base of this trough sometime Saturday with increasing rain and storm chances.   The “pattern" in the data again support the potential for severe weather in and around the southern and central plains.   We'll more than likely experience a prolonged period of unsettled weather with late day and overnight storm chances beginning Friday through the weekend.   Some of these storms will be strong to severe.   The wind profile combined with the expected moisture will support all modes of severe weather across the southern and central plains.   This is normal for mid-May. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Enjoy the weather today and tonight and keep that rain gear handy for Wednesday afternoon and evening.   Then we'll be focusing on severe weather potential for Friday into the weekend.

I always appreciate you reading the morning weather discussion and blog.  

Thank you very much.

Alan Crone