Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Snow Chances In The Days Ahead
Wednesday, February 25th 2015, 4:17 am
By: Alan Crone
We're tracking a few chances for some snow and rain over the next 7 days. This includes a minor warm-up today before another significant surge of shallow arctic air arrives later this afternoon bringing colder air back to the region Thursday and Friday. Temperatures may remain near or below freezing for afternoon highs both Thursday and Friday. Some snow and rain chances will continue for part of the weekend. And a storm system is brushing the southern third of the state this morning.
The upper air flow will bring a strong storm system across Texas this morning with rain and snow chances across part of the Lone Star State. This system will produce more wintry precipitation for portions of the Texoma region, including North Texas into the DFW region. Some locations across southern OK may see some snow this morning to midday. The current trajectory of the system would bring some precipitation along the southern most counties of Oklahoma. A slight jog northward could shift some slight snow across Atoka, Pushmataha, southern Pittsburg, Latimer or Leflore counties. A few echoes are noted at this hour ( 3am) near the I-40 region. This system will remain south of the northern OK and Tulsa vicinity. We'll see some sunshine with a few clouds and highs into 40s and lower 50s. Later tonight, a strong cold front will move back across the area with north winds and falling temperatures. A weak system diving down the northwest flow could produce some light flurries late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, but the odds remain low. This will be represented by a 10% pop for flurries Thursday.
Thursday and Friday will feature cold air with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the upper 20s near 30. A disturbance in the mid-levels will move from Eastern New Mexico into Western OK Thursday night and Friday morning. Some snow will develop as this wave moves eastward into the western and southwestern part of Oklahoma. Most model data weakens (dampens) the disturbance as it moves eastward with time, but some light snow will be a possibility Friday across part of northern and eastern OK. This probability will be represented by a 10 to 20% pop. Any accumulations would remain light.
Saturday and Sunday the upper air flow will transition to more of a westerly or southwesterly flow aloft across the southern plains. A series of disturbances will eject into the central plains. Pressure at the surface will fall to our west and southerly surface winds are expected to develop. This will have a tendency to bring our daytime highs back into the upper 30s Saturday and possibly into the mid-40s Sunday. The overnight lows will still remain chilly with Saturday morning's lows in the lower 20s and Sunday morning lows near freezing. There will be a chance for some precipitation for the weekend, and possibly during the morning hours. If this does occur, some snow or mix will be possible for a small window of time. It's too early to know with any confidence the exact outcome regarding the timing of any precipitation.
This morning's data for Sunday is back into the 40s for highs, while yesterday's runs presented highs in the 30s. .
The pattern for next week supports another precipitation maker arriving Monday or Tuesday, and higher pops will remain for the early part of the week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.