Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking More Cold Air Headed To Oklahoma

Tuesday, February 17th 2015, 3:56 am
By: Alan Crone

The winter storm that dropped sleet and snow across eastern OK is gone, but the ice cover on many roadways across the region remains this morning.   Slick and hazardous driving conditions are likely again this morning into the midday time period, more so on secondary or less –traveled roadways.   Use caution.    A weak upper level wave drops near the region this evening providing a chance for a few snow flurries or brief snow showers this evening across far NE OK and SE Kansas.   No significant accumulations are expected, but colder air will again move southward into the state tonight into Wednesday.    A brief warm-up is expected by the end of the week into Saturday, but another storm system is likely to produce rain Saturday.

The upper air flow will remain from the northwest to southeast today as a strong mid and upper level vortex is positioned across the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay.   Arctic air has flowed southward around the periphery of this feature and has enveloped a large portion of the Midwest into the northeastern U.S.   Eastern OK has experienced a glancing blow of this air-mass during the past two days, and will encounter another surge of cold air later tonight into Wednesday.   Highs today will level off in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the region with warmer air west where very little snow is on the ground, but north winds later tonight will bring temps back down Wednesday.   Morning lows will start in the teens and tomorrow's highs will stay just above freezing.  

Later this afternoon a small and weak upper level wave will drop southeast in the northwest flow bringing a chance for some snow flurries or brief snow showers to part of eastern OK.   This lifting mechanism will be relatively weak.   Moisture will be low.   No significant accumulation is expected, but a dusting is possible across far SE Kansas and extreme NE OK.

Thursday into Friday the upper air pattern should change to more of a zonal (west to east) flow.    A disturbance across the southwestern U.S. will slide eastward and help to generate falling pressure at the surface.   South winds will increase Thursday into Friday allowing our temps to also increase by Friday into Saturday.   The exact increase remains a mystery at this point.   EURO data has been slightly warmer compared to the GFS but today is closer to the GFS.  Our forecast will offer a compromise blend of the two.   This means daytime highs will move into the mid and upper 40s by the end of the week into the lower to mid-40s Saturday.   Rain appears likely to develop during the day Saturday, more so across eastern OK.   Saturday night another surface cold front should swing southward bringing colder air back to the state Sunday.   Any moisture remaining could transition to some snow across southern Kansas and possibility northeastern OK, but at this point, the odds will remain very low.   I'll only keep “ place holder” pops for the Sunday period. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone