Tracking Several Cold Fronts

Wednesday, February 11th 2015, 4:08 am

By: Alan Crone

Say goodbye to the mild and pleasant weather we've been experiencing over the past few days.   A cold front is moving southward this morning and will quickly bring colder conditions back to the state.   Temperatures today may only move into the upper 40s across northeastern OK by midday before dropping into the lower 40s late this afternoon.   Locations across southern OK will move into the mid-50s before falling later tonight. Strong north winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will be likely this afternoon.   A few small showers or areas of sprinkles may occur, but the favorable locations would be near or south of the I-40 corridor.   This cold front is just the beginning of a series of fronts to progress across the state.   Much colder air may arrive next week.

The upper air flow will remain from the northwest to southeast for the near term.   A significant chunk of modified arctic air will slide southeast across the Midwestern and eastern third of the nation today and tomorrow.   The trajectory of this air-mass will bring only a glancing blow to the state later this afternoon into Thursday.   But even a glancing blow will get your attention, mainly later tonight into Thursday.   Temps Thursday morning are projected to be in the upper teens to lower 20s with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.   North winds will continue Thursday, with morning wind chills in the teens.    Sunshine should be abundant Thursday with no chance of any wintry precipitation.

This first surge of colder air quickly moves eastward and is replaced, for two days, with improving temperatures into the mid or upper 50s by Friday afternoon and now into the 60s Saturday.     But just as we are enjoying the brief warm-up, another strong cold front will move across the plains late Saturday afternoon knocking our temps back down for Sunday.   Saturday morning will start near 30 with highs now projected to move into the lower 60s..   Another surge of cold air moves into the northeastern third of the state Saturday evening with strong northeast winds from 20 to 30 mph.   Wind chill values will drop by Sunday morning into the lower teens.   Sunday afternoon highs will move back into the 40s.

Next week may become problematic in a number of ways.   Our air mass is expected to remain cold across the state into Monday as a weak impulse in the mid-levels of the atmosphere nears our region. This should bring some moisture up and over the colder air at the surface.   This “pattern" is supportive of wintry precipitation, including the possibility of some ice.   The two longer range models ( GFS and EURO) are both hinting at some precipitation nearing the state early next week ( Monday into Tuesday) with the cold air remaining " basically" in place.    We're way too early to make any bold statements or predictions regarding the “exact " outcome Monday and Tuesday, but it does bear mention to monitor the weather later this weekend into early next week.   Hopefully these solutions change.

Another issue may be even more cold air by the middle to end of the week.   The pattern in the atmosphere would be supportive of another significant chunk of arctic air moving across a large portion of the nation.   This trajectory would bring the colder air slightly more westward compared to the air-mass arriving today and tomorrow.   Bottom line: we may be dealing with another extremely cold pattern for the middle to end of next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV