Tracking A Rain Maker

Tuesday, October 7th 2014, 4:35 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. Our main focus for the forecast will be in the extended portions and concerning the precipitation chances across the state as remnants from Tropical storm Simon may combine with a slow moving front to produce pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall Friday and Saturday morning. Before this system moves near the area, we'll be encountering a mini-warming trend with highs this afternoon nearing 90 for many locations.

I anticipated a few thunderstorms late last night across the far southeastern third of the state. These did not develop and the entire region remained storm free. This morning a few spotty thunderstorms may develop across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri as a weak upper level wave in the northwest flow brushes the region. This wave will remain too far northwest to impact our immediate area.

A weak surface boundary may slide southward later tonight and stall across northern OK before moving northward early Wednesday morning. A few showers or storms may develop along the northward moving warm front early Wednesday morning for portions of far northeastern OK into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Some small to moderate sized hail would be possible with the stronger storms, but the coverage of thunderstorm activity will remain sparse. This will be represented by small pops on the 7 day planner for early Wednesday morning.

The tropical system currently off the Baja should move in-land soon and become absorbed in the zonal ( west to east) flow over the southwestern U.S. during the next few days. This disturbance may also merge with another weak wave dropping out of the western U.S. and approach the state by Thursday and Friday. A weak boundary will slowly slide southward Thursday with showers and storms mainly located across far northern OK and southern Kansas. Friday the boundary will slide more to the south and enter the state as the upper level wave draws closer to the area. Numerous showers and storms will be likely during this period with some locally heavy rainfall a possibility as the boundary becomes a focus for training of pecip cells. The data has some controversy regarding the ending of the system but we have elected to support the superior EURO runs that keep a healthy precip chance for Saturday morning across the eastern third of the state before moving eastward by midday to afternoon. The EURO also drops a very strong system down the Rockies and central plains Sunday night into Monday with increasing thunderstorm chances early next week while the GFS is totally different with drier suggestion. We'll introduce a chance for some showers and storms early next week but remain well below the suggestions of the EURO.

Temps this afternoon will move into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Storm chances gradually increase Wednesday and Thursday with much higher chances Friday into Saturday. Cooler air will also follow with daytime highs dropping into the upper 60s Friday and Saturday.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone