Odile....Not a Big Deal....At Least Not for Oklahoma.

Odile…..no big deal. Earlier in the week, the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Odile were expected to have a significant impact on the weather across the Sooner state by this weekend. However, as mentioned in yesterday's blog, each new set of data has weakened the system more than expected and taken most of its moisture further south into Texas. As a result, we have been trimming back the rain chances and continue to do so. For example, notice the 7 day QPF map which has the precipitation bulls-eye well into W TX as opposed to even SW OK as was the case yesterday. As you can see, some lighter showers/storms may occur on the E side of the state, but again nothing like what was expected earlier in the week.

It now appears that what showers or thunder we do receive will be largely due to a frontal boundary instead of the Odile remnants. A cool front will be moving across the state on Sunday and should be south of the I-40 corridor by afternoon. That is when most of what showers/storms will occur and most of that should then be for the more southern counties. Having said that, there is sufficient moisture that a very few pop-up showers/storms could develop Saturday afternoon, but the chances will be less than 20%. The chances for NE OK on Sunday now look to only be on the order of 20% with somewhat better chances further south.

After that, milder temperatures and drier air will prevail going into next week with little or no mention of rain going into the state fair for late next week and that following weekend.

For this Saturday though, temperatures will once again be above normal with morning lows in the 60s to near 70 followed by afternoon highs well into the 80s. It will also be rather muggy with dew point temperatures in the 60s to around 70. That means the minimum relative humidity will only drop to around the 50% level during the heat of the day and heat index values will likely be in the lower 90s. Some patchy morning fog should quickly lift due to light southerly winds leaving us with partly cloudy skies by that afternoon.

Winds shifting to N/NE behind the cool front on Sunday will bring drier air so more sunshine is expected that afternoon. This is not a particularly cool system anyway, so after starting off near 70 Sunday morning, afternoon temperatures will again be well into the 80s. But, drier air will be spreading behind the boundary so the humidity levels should be more comfortable. That will be followed by temperatures closer to normal for much of the following week with daytime highs generally in the lower 80s and overnight lows around 60. The exception would be Monday morning when temperatures will likely be in the lower 50s under fair skies and a light NE wind. As winds return to a more SE direction later in the week, things will start to warm up again, but it looks like moisture will be slow to return and therefore little or no mention of rain.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot