Any More Triple Digits in the Forecast?

As I write this, it looks like we have managed to avoid the century mark today after 4 straight days at or above 100 here in Tulsa. Just barely though as the high so far has been 99. As you can see from the max/min temperature map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, triple digits were primarily confined to the more western counties. However, as the second map shows, even though we did not have air temperatures of triple digits, the combination of heat and humidity certainly made it feel like it as the heat index was at or above 100 at most locations.

Fortunately, it is looking more and more like we have turned the corner on this late summer heat wave and triple digits are not in the forecast throughout this cycle. It will still be hot with above normal temperatures again for Wednesday and Thursday as daytime highs will be in the mid-upper 90s and heat index values near 100. But, by Friday and Saturday we will have mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers/storms which will translate into daytime highs only in the 80s both days. By Sunday, the normal daytime high is 90 but as we head into September, the normal quickly falls off into the 80s.

However, by then another stretch of above normal temperatures will be returning with daytime highs back into the 90s. Notice the next two maps on the right which have the outlook for the 6-10 day period which would be basically that first week of September. Obviously, we have a strong signal suggesting temperatures will average above normal during that stretch. However, that does not necessarily mean we will have another round of triple digits. Keep in mind the normal high by that time of year is dropping into the 80s so anything above 90 would be considered warmer than normal. At least there will also be a little better chance of showers/storms during that time frame as well.

Speaking of showers and storms, we will have a decent shot at some rain during the Fri/Sat time frame as mentioned above. The last map on the right shows the 7 day QPF and if it verifies would suggest an inch or more of rain should be rather widespread across much of the state. Welcome news indeed and keep in mind this is an areal average estimate so some locations could easily wind up with a great deal more than that.

So, it is still hot and it is still humid, but conditions will be slowly improving and we will even have a decent chance of some badly needed rainfall just in time for the coming weekend.

Dick Faurot