Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, May 21st 2014, 4:33 am
By: Alan Crone

Our main forecast challenge revolves around the big upper level low currently located across the western U.S.  This low is projected to drop south and slowly southeast for the next several days.  The position of the low will bring high rain and storm chances for western OK Thursday and Friday, but only slight chances for the eastern third of the state through the weekend.  Early next week, the low may be closer to our region allowing for higher chances of showers and storms Monday and Tuesday.  We'll be dealing with windy and warm conditions today with highs nearing the upper 80s. 

The model data today continues to support good run to run consistency with the short and medium range of the forecast bringing the low to the desert southwest during the next 36 hours.  The outcome from Sunday into early next week has shown some minor consistency compared to the wide solutions of yesterday.  This gives us slightly better confidence for increasing storm chances Monday and Tuesday of next week, but I must stress these pops may still change up or down.  Both the EURO and GFS bring the upper low near Kansas by Monday and Tuesday.   

Later today, a stationary boundary across central Kansas will more than likely result in scattered thunderstorms.  We see signs of these storms developing into a small complex of storms and moving mainly eastward across portions of central Kansas.  There's a small chance this complex may drop southeast and could brush far Southeastern Kansas later tonight into Thursday morning before the system weakens.  Again, this probability is very low that storms may enter southeastern Kansas, but worth mentioning on the discussion this morning.  

We have decided to keep a slight chance for a shower or storm Friday night with a 20% chance into Saturday and a 30% chance into Sunday.  Monday into Tuesday will feature near or better than average chances for scattered showers or storms.   

If you're heading to an area lake this weekend, there may be a few scattered showers or storms but a lot of areas will remain dry.  Locations near and west of I-35 will have much higher probabilities for showers and storms.  

Temperatures today should move back into the upper 80s near 90 along with gusty south winds at 15 to 30 mph.  The rest of the week will support highs in the mid-80s with morning lows in the upper 60s along with south winds.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 4:40pm.

The normal daily average high is 81 and the low is 61.

Our daily record high is 95 from 1925 and the low is 45 from 1915.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning. 

I'll also be on numerous Tulsa Metro Clear Channel radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone