Wednesday Night Could Get Interesting.


Tuesday, March 4th 2014, 3:42 pm
By: News On 6


As you can see from the map on the right, temperatures finally made it above freezing statewide for the first time in several days. Hopefully, we have now seen the last of the days in which temperatures will not get above the freezing mark. Having said that, a look at the record book shows that our latest below freezing daytime high was on Mar 25, 1965. The way this cool season has been going, I suppose anything remains possible. By the way, the second map on the right shows the total number of days in which temperatures did not get above freezing for the cool season and you can see we have had a bunch of those. In fact, for Tulsa that number now stands at 23 which is 4th in the all-time record list for that particular category.

Although temperatures will be moderating over this forecast period, we will still be generally cooler than normal. In fact, really do not see a repeat of that 10 day stretch in the middle of February when we were in the 60s to around 70 anytime soon.

In the short term, another weather maker is coming our way for later Wednesday and through the overnight period. This system is not nearly as strong as the most recent one, but still has some interesting aspects. For example, the data that has come in so far today is now running colder at the surface and aloft than 24 hours ago and there continues to be a precipitation signal, albeit a very weak one. Given the colder column of air, snow is a more likely outcome although a mixed bag cannot be ruled out. In either event, amounts look to be on the light side with a dusting or so by the time it ends Thursday morning.

Another, potentially very wet system will be coming our way for later Saturday into the day Sunday. Current indications are that the column of air associated with it will be warmer and therefore more supportive of just a cold rain.

As mentioned, temperatures will be moderating over the coming week, but with these weather makers moving through periodically and our winds shifting back to N or NE with each one, that makes a more pronounced warm-up more difficult.

At least temperatures will not be as cold tonight with morning lows generally in the lower 20s under fair skies and light southerly winds. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be impacted by the increasing cloud cover and a return to light northerly winds. Right now, it looks like upper 30s to low 40s can be expected. Thursday morning will also be in the 20s followed by 40s for that afternoon along with clearing skies.

Friday looks to be the best day of the coming week with lots of sunshine and brisk S to SE winds. Earlier in the week, it looked like a more SW wind component which would push us well into the 60s. Now that it appears we will have a more easterly wind component, then temperatures closer to 60 now appear more likely and perhaps only into the 50s. At least that is closer to normal.

As mentioned, Saturday into the day Sunday look wet and clouds along with a return to a more NE wind should hold daytime temperatures into the 40s or lower 50s. At least we will be above freezing.

Notice the last two maps on the right which are the projections for the 8-14 day period. We are still on the fringe of below normal temperatures during that time period. The prospects for any significant moisture during that period are also rather bleak. Although we do have a chance of moisture Wednesday night and again over the weekend, we are quite dry and really need much more. The prospects appear to be rather slim at this time.

So stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot