Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, October 31st 2013, 3:43 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking additional thunderstorms this morning (2:45am) across eastern and northern OK.  The main threat will be moderate to heavy rainfall.  The system will be exiting the Tulsa metro around 8am to 10am and should be exiting eastern OK around 10am to noon.  Some additional cloud cover and a few sprinkles may occur from 10am to 1pm across far southeastern Kansas and northeastern OK but this will be insignificant. The clouds will thin out rapidly around 2pm to 3pm.   Our afternoon temperatures should end up around 62 to 64 today with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph after hitting the lower 70s this morning.  We continue to call for improving conditions this evening for Trick or Treat, Halloween, and Fall Family Festival activities.  Temperatures by 6pm this evening will be near 60 falling into the mid 50s by 9pm with decreasing wind speeds by 7pm.

This major system has delivered heavy rainfall across far southeastern OK and some severe weather yesterday afternoon and overnight west and northwest of the Tulsa metro.  This dynamic system has plenty of shear but CAPE and instability have been low.  The severe weather threat will spread east over a large portion of the upper Midwest and the southern states this afternoon and evening. 

Our weather looks wonderful for Friday and the weekend.  Sunny conditions along with dry air will allow for great weather.  Friday morning temps will start in the lower to mid-40s and finish around 70 with southwest winds for the first half of the day.  Another weak boundary slides southeast Friday night as a surface ridge of high pressure settles across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.  This will bring north winds back to the state Friday afternoon and evening.  Saturday morning temperatures will start in the upper 30s and lower 40s followed by afternoon highs in the lower 60s with light north winds.  Sunday morning should also be chilly with lows in the mid-30s.   South winds will rapidly return across the eastern third of the state Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.  These winds will return as the pressure falls in response to our next upper level system nearing the region. 

EURO and GFS data were very close for the next system a few days ago, but yesterday's EURO run took a strange turn.  The 12z EURO indicated more of a slow and closed low type system while the 12z GFS remained mostly open and progressive.  The EURO would require pops almost every day of next week while the GFS keeps a slight chance Monday and Tuesday with cool and improving weather for the end of next week.  The last run of the EURO reverted back to an open wave, but it continues to be slower with the systems exit compared to the GFS.  Basically our current forecast resembles more of the GFS blend, and I see no big reason to deviate from the trend at this point.  We still have plenty of time to discuss and forecast next week.  We'll keep you posted.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 71 recorded at 6:08am.
The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 46.

Daily records include a high of87 from 1959 and a low of 18 from 1993.

Rainfall yesterday from Tulsa International was 0.84 inches.
This brings our year to date total to 29.15 which is -6.40  compared to normal precip to date of 35.55 inches.

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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a great day.

Alan Crone