It's a new week and a new weather pattern! You may have noticed our crisp mornings and rather tranquil days have given way to warmer, windier, and more humid conditions. A strong upper-level low pressure system is moving through the western United States and its influence is already being felt here in Oklahoma.
This storm system will affect us through Halloween day and come with several rounds of a rain and storms. The first round will come tonight with a lead impulse in the jet stream that will spark scattered showers and storms overnight. The first attached map shows where the best chance of rain will occur overnight into Tuesday morning. While widespread severe weather isn't expected, we can't rule out a few storms with some hail.
After a lull in the rain Tuesday afternoon and evening, heavy rain and storms will break out in response to forcing from the main upper-level low. For 24-36 hours, we will be tracking the potential for localized flooding and storms that could reach severe limits. Wednesday is our main day for heavy rain and thunderstorms, but it may linger into the first half of Halloween day as well. The next map shows the Slight Risk of severe weather for our area on Wednesday. Fortunately, all of our data shows rain moving out just in time for the Trick-or-Treaters! Between then and now, between 3 and 4 inches of rain may fall. See the following map!
We'll be on the mild side of this storm system through Thursday. In fact, Tulsa may not see a temperature below 60° until after the kids are in from collecting candy Thursday night. That's mighty impressive considering our average low temperature this time of year is in the mid-40s. Originally, this storm was showing signs of wrapping in some very cold air. Now, with a more northerly track, that cold air stays away and there's no major cool-down to follow. The wet, stormy weather will lead to a dry, mild weekend. Until the system passes to our east, expect gusty south winds, in excess of 30mph at times.
Tulsa has yet to experience its first freeze and we'll be waiting until sometime in November to see that critical mark reached. Locations just outside of Tulsa, especially just north and west have already seen some frosty mornings. The next attached map shows the number of freezing mornings we've seen this season so far. Tulsa's average first freeze is November 3rd.