Friday Morning Update

Friday, October 4th 2013, 4:36 am

Good morning.  We're tracking a major cold front that will invade the area tonight bringing big changes to our area this weekend.  Afternoon temperatures near 90 today will be replaced with high temperatures in the lower to mid-60s tomorrow.  As the cold front approaches the area tonight severe storms are a slight possibility to the northwest of Tulsa.  

 The major upper level system is currently lifting out across the Northern and Central High Plains.  This system is causing significant snow in portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas.  Blizzard warnings are underway for part of South Dakota.  A moderate risk of severe weather will unfold today across the Midwestern states with the possibility of tornadoes in Iowa southward into portions of the central plains.  A surface cold front will extend across part of Kansas into northern Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening and some thunderstorm activity may be strong to severe later tonight.  The window for severe thunderstorm activity is very narrow and will not last long.  The cold front will surge southeast rapidly Friday evening and will tend to undercut updrafts of thunderstorms.  Most data quickly supports post front of precipitation later this evening which will limit and greatly reduce the possibility of severe weather.   

The models are now converging on a frontal passage for Tulsa around the midnight time frame with the front not clearing our southeastern OK counties until 5am or so.  These types of fronts, however, usually arrive slightly faster than modeled.  We'll start our window around 10pm and continue through the 5am hour.  If we're correct with this timing, most if not all Friday night football games in northeastern and eastern OK will not experience storms.  If the front arrives an hour or two faster, the late part of the games northwest of Tulsa could see some storms. 

 Portions of the upper level trough will still be near the state early Saturday morning supporting some rain early Saturday morning for a few hours.  We still think most of the precipitation will rapidly move away from our area by mid-morning or earlier Saturday.  After these early Saturday morning leftovers, gusty north winds combined with decreasing clouds are expected with temperatures only in the lower to mid-60s for afternoon highs. 

 Dry air in the lower level of the atmosphere combined with light wind and clear sky will support Sunday morning lows in the lower to mid-forties!  Sunday afternoon expect sunshine and light winds. The afternoon high will be near 70 degrees.   

 Temperatures will slowly warm early next week to above normal levels as the next storm system may appear by late in the week.  

 The high temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 3:40pm. The normal daily averages in a high of 77 and a low of 57.   Daily records include a high of 97 from 1931 and a low of 38 from 2010.  

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.   

 I'll be discussing the statewide forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates this morning.   

 Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a great day! 

Alan Crone


 Tropical storm Karen.

 This system in the southern Gulf of Mexico will move north approaching the southern US coast line by this weekend.  Tropical storm and hurricane watches are posted along the Gulf Coast region from Louisiana to Florida.