Monday Morning Update

Monday, September 30th 2013, 4:37 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  Fog is a possibility again this morning across part of northeastern Oklahoma.  Some areas of dense fog may also occur over the next hour or so in a few locations, but most of this should remain to the east of the Tulsa area.  We expect a mostly sunny day with SE winds at 10 mph.  Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 80s today.  A warming trend will continue through the end of the week before a major cold front arrives Friday or Saturday.  

 Tuesday and Wednesday low-level moisture is expected to stream northward across East Texas into eastern Oklahoma.  This process could lead to a few scattered showers or storms, but the coverage will be very low.  The chance of shower or thunderstorm activity at this time will remain very low and will be represented by a 10% chance on the big 7 day planner.   

 By the end of the week, the upper air pattern will be conducive to bringing a large storm system across the country.  The surface cold front should sweep across the area either Friday or Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The exact timing of the system remains elusive but at this point, but I will bring the front into the area Friday evening into pre-dawn Saturday for this forecast cycle update.  I'll continue to post updates regarding this system on a daily basis. 

The air mass behind this boundary will be seasonally cool.  Saturday morning lows will be back down in the 50s but Sunday morning lows could easily bottom out in the 40s for a large chunk of northeastern OK and southern Kansas.   

Weekend highs should also be cool.  The computer number output ( MOS) suggest some 70s for both Saturday and Sunday, but We may end up even cooler.  There's a chance Saturday highs could remain in the mid 60s with Sunday approaching 70.  I have very little confidence in the weekend numbers at this point, so we'll stick with some 70s and "fine tune" the dancing music on a daily basis.  

 In summary, morning lows will continue to climb back into the 60s through the middle of the week.  After today, the afternoon highs will move into the upper 80s for the middle to end of the week.  Rain-storm chances will increase Friday or pre-dawn Saturday followed by cooler air.   

 The high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 4:12pm.  

 The normal daily average high is 78 the normal low is 56.  

 Daily records include a high of 99 from 1979 and a record low of 35 from 1984.  

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

 I'll be discussing the statewide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates. 

 Thank you for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog. 

 Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone