A more unsettled weather pattern over the next few days will provide several chances for rain, but as the QPF map on the right shows, it will not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought situation. The systems responsible for at least a chance of showers/storms are still out over the Pacific at this time, so hopefully we will have better data to work with over the next few days which may result in more generous rainfall totals. Don't get your hopes up too high though. The way this cool season has been going, about every time we see a system that looks promising, it has not delivered so we will see.
At any rate, it will be very mild until a stronger cold front arrives on Tuesday. For today, we expect to reach the mid 50s despite very little sunshine and Sunday will reach the mid 60s; with little or no sunshine expected for Sunday either. Would you believe Monday will likely be in the mid 70s so it will be very Spring-like over the next couple of days.
Our nights will also be getting milder with morning lows in the mid 40s Sunday morning, upper 50s Monday morning, and near 60 Tuesday morning. That is close to record territory for morning lows, particularly for Tuesday morning.
Southerly winds will become quite strong and gusty, particularly on Sunday and Monday, then shifting to the N behind the cold front as it pushes through the state during the day Tuesday. Ordinarily, those winds would also result in a high fire danger, but it appears we will have much higher humidity levels along with the chances of rain which should mitigate the fire danger somewhat.
Now, for our rain chances. A lead disturbance aloft will be rapidly moving out of the Baja California area today and tonight, spreading lots of mid-high level moisture ahead of it. That will keep us under the mostly cloudy skies, but the lower level moisture is still lacking. So, only some drizzle or periods of light rain or showers are expected for the night tonight and into the morning hours of Sunday. Most of the heavier precipitation will likely be further north into KS.
Despite the mostly cloudy skies, only a few very light showers may occur during the day Sunday and much the same for Monday. Tuesday will be more interesting with the cold front sweeping across the state and the very warm, humid conditions that will prevail ahead of the front. This should produce showers/storms developing along/ahead of the cold front and some of those will have the potential to become severe with primarily a wind/hail threat. If the support aloft should be stronger and better organized than is currently projected, then our chances for heavier rainfall would go up considerably. However, the way things stand right now, it appears the system will not get really cranked up till it is further east. At least we have a decent chance for some rain and perhaps as better sampling provides better data over the next day or two, we will end up with more generous rainfall totals than now anticipated.
The latter part of the week looks like a return to more seasonal conditions with respect to temperatures as we head on into the month of February.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.