Thursday Morning Update

Another cold day is expected across northern OK and southern Kansas with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  We'll start with mostly sunny conditions across the northern third of the state before clouds will be increasing across southern OK this afternoon and evening. A storm system will slide across eastern OK Friday night into Saturday morning with a chance of flurries. The atmosphere across NE OK is expected to remain too dry to support significant precipitation but some areas across southeastern OK and north Texas may see some light precip Friday morning into the evening hours.  This system will produce accumulating snow today across the far southwestern sections of Texas where winter storm warnings are currently in effect.

 The main upper air pattern continues to be dominated by the northern stream in a split flow regime.  This weekend into early next week, the northern stream upper trough will slide eastward with the southern stream becoming more of a player across the state.  A powerful upper level system will form near the Aleutian Island chain and will dive southward and then across the desert southwest early next week.  As this happens, south winds will return across the southern and central plains bringing an increase in low level moisture to the region by the middle of next week.  Subsequently the system will develop a surface low Wednesday that will move across part of Texas.  Rain and storm activity will become likely to the east and northeast of this low pressure area.  The timing in the data has not been consistent from model to model but the timing would support either a wet Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  We'll wait to ring the bell on any specific day for the highest pop, but will place the first pop on Wednesday of next week.  

Before this occurs, a relative warming trend will commence this weekend into early next week.  We'll be flirting with highs nearing the upper 50s or 60 early next week and morning lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s.

Yesterdays official high in Tulsa was 39 recorded at 4:11 pm.

The normal daily average high is 47 and the low is 28.

Our daily record high is 78 from 2009   and the low is -2 recorded on this date in 1919.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.   http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter   @alancrone

I'll also be discussing the forecast with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa, and on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks again for stopping by and reading the morning discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV