Tuesday Morning Update

A cold front moved across the region last night bringing a few showers and storms to the eastern third of the state.  Cooler and drier air will filter into the state this morning allowing temps to drop into the lower 50s for morning lows.  Daytime highs will move into the mid-60s along with northeast breezes in the 10 to 15 mph range.  Abundant sunshine is expected after some morning clouds move across the state.  Another weak system will be arriving Friday into the weekend with a major cold front rolling over the state Sunday evening into Monday morning.   

The upper air flow remains from the west to east (zonal) and the colder air located across Canada and points northward will remain north through the short and midterm periods.  As the upper air flow amplifies by the end of this week, the colder air mass across the Yukon will dislodge and slide southward.  While the exact timing and trajectory of the cold air is yet to be known with high confidence levels, we are seeing run to run consistency in the data suggesting the cold air is likely to move near our area by early next week.  

The data is also suggesting the potential for some wintry precipitation across the state Monday as the upper level low slides across the southern plains.  The EURO and GFS both suggest the colder air will be likely, but the models do have some differences on the magnitude of the colder air and the precipitation possibilities for wintry weather.  Needless to say, we'll be watching the data carefully and adjusting the forecast as the time period draws near.  

The temperatures this afternoon, while cooler than the previous three days, will still be above the normal high of 52.  Temps will be in the mid-60s both today and tomorrow before the first boundary arrives Friday across northern OK.  This boundary will stall across the northern third of the state and may slide slightly northward into southern Kansas Saturday.  GFS and EURO differ greatly on the location of this boundary but for now, our forecast will remain somewhat mild Sunday with highs in the mid-60s before turning folder Sunday evening.  Locations north of this boundary could stay in the 50s with areas south in the 60s.  If the boundary ends up south of Tulsa Sunday, we'll be in the upper 50s versus the mid-60s.  A few showers or storms may be possible Friday and Saturday, but the overall precipitation chances will remain low from Friday through the weekend. The higher chances will ramp up Sunday evening into early next week.  

Yesterday's high temp in Tulsa was 76, one degree shy of the daily record high.

The daily average high today is 52 with the low of 32.

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Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone