The updated QPF map is on the right, valid through this coming Saturday morning. Still looks promising for some decent rainfall across the state during the week, particularly for late Thursday into early Friday. Keep in mind, this map is an areal average and does NOT mean that everyone will receive an inch or more of rainfall. As is often the case and indeed has been the case all summer, there will be some locations that will pick up far more than an inch of rain and other locations that will receive little if any at all. But at least we have a decent chance of some badly needed rainfall although this will not be a drought breaker by any stretch.
Speaking of chances, we will have at least a chance of shower/storms late tonight into the mid day period of Tuesday due to a NW flow pattern aloft. These type systems are notorious for pulling a surprise by either producing far more rain than expected or falling apart before making it this far east. Typically in a NW flow situation, storms will form in the high plains of Colorado or W KS during the late afternoon/evening hours and then propagate to the E and SE overnight gradually weakening as they do so. These can be a significant source of rainfall, particularly during the spring and early summer. Obviously, we pretty much missed out on that pattern this year and the data is offering a mixed bag with respect to placement and amounts this time around. Right now, the signal suggests most of the precipitation will be immediately to the west of the Tulsa area so will put the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall at 30% for late tonight and Tuesday. Better chances to the west, lesser chances further east.
That will have major ramifications regarding temperatures as well. The guidance has been very inconsistent in that regard ranging from 90 to less than 80 for the projected highs on Tuesday. If the pattern does produce more widespread cloud cover and showers which linger for much of the day, then a high near 80 may verify. But, the way this summer has gone, that has rarely been the case. Even so, will hedge and lower the daytime high for Tuesday to the mid 80s with the caveat that it could easily be much warmer or cooler depending on the ultimate placement of those morning showers. Obviously, a large bust potential for Tuesday.
Much the same can be said for Wednesday as one set of guidance has high temperatures up to 105 and another set has the high temperature at 84. Based on the way this summer has gone so far, am more inclined to go with the warmer guidance, but will keep it below 100. There will also be a slight chance of shower/storms again on Wednesday, but the chances look to be no more than 20% at this time.
Huge bust potential again on Thursday in advance of the stronger cool front that will be arriving late in the day. Depending on cloud cover and when the showers/storms form in advance of that boundary we could see daytime highs near triple digits or only near 90. For now, will lean to the warm side and go with mid 90s. Our best chance of showers/storms is also expected as that boundary moves through with some lingering showers into Friday morning.
One thing the guidance is consistent on is the cool-down which we will enjoy starting Friday and lasting through the weekend.
All in all, an interesting week ahead but at least we are seeing a pattern change providing chances of rain and a more significant break in the heat.