Monday Morning Update

Monday, August 13th 2012, 5:05 am
By: Alan Crone

A weak front is clearing the far southeastern OK area this morning.  The boundary will knock the temps down a few degrees today with highs in the lower to mid 90s.   Another system may approach the area Tuesday due to the northwest flow aloft positioned across the area.   

The main upper level ridge of high pressure that has been responsible in part for the oppressive heat the past month is now located to our west.  The upper air flow from the northwest to the southeast is a favorable air flow to bring disturbances and storm complexes into the area, and we may have a weakening storm complex approaching our area Tuesday morning through midday.  The last few runs of the NAM data indicate a storm complex will form across Kansas later today and tonight and move southeast with time into early Tuesday morning.  The exact trajectory of this possible MCS ( mesoscale convective system) is not known with any confidence but most of the data runs bring this system across the north central OK area by Tuesday morning into midday.  If the complex does not survive, we may see an outflow boundary sliding southward that could also bring a chance of showers and storms, but the chance will remain around 30% for today's forecast cycle unless we see some higher confidence in the trajectory of the system.  We'll also continue to keep the northwest flow over the region for the week which will allow for a fairly stout front (by August standards) to move across the area around Thursday evening.  This will bring a good chance of wide-spread rain and storms to the state with cooler air Thursday into Friday.  Highs will be in the 80s following the passage of the Thursday system with morning lows Friday and Saturday back into the lower 60s and upper 50s.   

This week will offer several chances for showers and storms, and the Tuesday period may end up offering higher storm chances, but the Thursday system currently has the highest coverage and storm chance that our state has experienced in two months or more. The impact of the long term drought will remain regardless of the amount of rainfall we receive.  The short term fire danger would be helped for a day or so.  The good news:  the upper air pattern has changed, and our forecast may offer several storm chances for the state during the next 10 days.  We'll also be moving into a time period of late August and early September soon that typically brings more active weather to the southern plains as the main polar jet begins its slow migration southward as the sun angle begins to change as the equinox approaches.  

Several waves have entered the Atlantic basin and the hurricane season is now entering its normal " peak", meaning additional systems may be possible during the next few weeks.   I usually post updates regarding these tropical systems using my facebook fan page.  You are more than welcome to take a look at this address: 


I also use twitter and you can follow me at   twitter@alancrone.  

Regarding twitter:  If your phone is set for automatic notification, just be aware I send tweets at all hours of the early morning.


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Enjoy the weather.