Spring in December?

So far, the month of December has bestowed us with below normal, if not downright frigid temperatures. Many areas have yet to see snow, but it certainly has been cold enough to support it. If you're wanting a blanket of snow to bring you more into the holiday spirit, you'll have to wait awhile because we're on our way to warmer temperatures this week.

It'll be warm enough that I'd call it a taste of spring in December. This warm-up is in response to an upper-level low centered in the Desert Southwest. Out in front of it, southerly flow will bring up those warmer readings and moist conditions. The added cloud cover and occasional shower will offset the warmer temperatures a bit. However, the threat of any wintry precipitation will be held at bay. I'm forecasting highs in the 50s Tuesday. By Wednesday, the southerly winds will really be cranking and we should warm well into the 60s!

There may be enough warm air at the surface and instability in place to give us a thunderstorm threat Wednesday afternoon. The severe weather risk is low, but definitely not out of the question. The Storm Prediction Center puts much of Oklahoma in the "See Text" category. This means the probability is low enough that it doesn't warrant an official category, but there is a non-zero risk of severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. The map above shows you the outlined area in which there is a 5-15% chance severe weather will happen within 25 miles of a given location. If this sounds like a very low probability, you're not deceived. We'll be referring to maps like these much more often come springtime!

Beyond Wednesday, there are no major cool-downs or winter storms looming – at least within the next 7 days or so. The upper-level pattern doesn't support any rush of cold air into region. I'm certainly fine with above-average temperatures this time of year! Now, it's a bit too early to talk chances of seeing a White Christmas. In an upcoming blog entry, I'll be sure to address it though!

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