This morning we're tracking a few scattered showers and storms across the state. The chance of showers and storms in your area will be near 20% this morning. Afternoon high temperatures will move into the upper 90s with mostly cloudy conditions through midday. A few locations may hit 100 as clouds begin to thin out during the afternoon.
The ridge of high pressure aloft will again be the main player Wednesday and Thursday bringing the heat back to the region before the ridge begins to weaken by this weekend. The models did indicate a surge of tropical moisture attempting to slide across east Texas by this weekend, but differences in the model data leave a low confidence forecast regarding our rain chances Friday and Saturday.
NAM data supports more of a tropical system will a closed low in the Gulf soon compared to the GFS which supports more of an open wave. The closed low would greatly limit our rain chances this weekend while the GFS open wave would advect a healthy amount of moisture into our region. While the rain portion of the forecast remains on the low confidence side, the temperature forecast will also be on the bubble. The bottom line: Friday and Saturday temps look hot but the data continues to support temperatures coming down early next week. GFS and EURO data both support a front sliding across the region by Sunday morning bringing a very nice break into the state for Labor Day.
If one is to believe the actual output of the data, Monday may end up being the best day we have had since early May. Temperatures would start the day in the lower 60s and finish in the lower 80s with plenty of sunshine and northeast breezes. This would be wonderful. But I'll wait for a few more days before getting too excited about a day 7 for this cycle.