The relentless heat wave continues with highs expected near 100 to 106 for the next 6 to 7 days, and possibly longer. We continue to see no real signs of any major changes in the upper air pattern even though some minor changes will take place with the mid level ridge today through this weekend.
The ridge is moving slightly to the southeast today and will remain to our southeast through Friday. This will allow a southwest surface flow to develop on the back side of the ridge bringing drier air into the state. This will result in slightly higher daytime highs today through Friday. Morning lows will also slowly be increasing, more so in the Tulsa metro, with lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s across eastern OK.
The data is indicating a weak disturbance may slide up into the state this weekend from the Gulf region. Increasing moisture across East Texas and the Arklatex may be close enough to spark off a few showers and storms this weekend, but mainly across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas.
A weak front is also expected to slide into Kansas by this weekend and could possibly move as far south as southern Kansas. The mid level ridge will probably be too strong to allow the boundary to move into Oklahoma, but we'll be watching closely.
The GFS and EURO both suggest the ridge will flatten some early next week, with the GFS sliding the ridge a little to our west. The EURO, usually a superior model regarding these things, is keeping the ridge directly over the state through early next week. This may be the difference between a high Monday near 99 and a high Monday near 104.
If this ridge doesn't change soon, many locations across the southern plains will see the summer of 2011 as the hottest summer since 1980.