Tracking A System

The major heat wave will continue but there will be some minor relief for a few folks over the next 24 to 36 hours as an upper level circulation slides over our area.  This system did produce some widely scattered storms yesterday and overnight across the high plains of Texas and also in a few spots across western OK.  Don't get too excited about the prospects of rain, but there will be some scattered storms in the area and some folks will get some minor relief.  Forecasting exactly where these small showers and storms will occur is almost impossible other than broad brushing an area across the northern part of the state having a 30% chance this evening and overnight with locations south of the area having a 20% probability.  

I'll keep the temperature forecast above 100 for all locations today and for the next several days, but locations fortunate enough to see a storm will see the temperatures drop from near 100 to the lower 90s or upper 80s for an hour or two with rain cooled air. Again, most folks will not experience the scattered storms, and the heat advisory and heat warning will remain for most of the state. 

These systems (sub tropical in nature) usually have a convective flare up during the overnight periods and this is a possibility overnight and early tomorrow across portions of northern OK.  I thought about bringing the pops up for the overnight period but I'll keep the 30% chance across the board.  If we do see some morning showers and storms early tomorrow, this may keep us just below 100 for daytime highs Wednesday.  Maybe 99!  A minor victory!  But this would be dependant upon the coverage of showers and storms and I'll keep the temps slightly above 100 for Wednesday afternoon. 

The extended models will bring the upper level system southward soon and may be wobbling near the state Wednesday and Thursday, but again, the heat will be the main issue with highs above 100 and morning lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s. 

We've been very quiet in the tropical basins so far this year, but we will be watching the Gulf closely over the next two weeks for any waves that could move closer to the southern plains.  This time of year once the mid level ridge starts to become more established, it usually takes something like a tropical system to break the heat wave.

 The EURO continues to keep the big mid level ridge centered over the central plains this weekend which would equate to very hot air across eastern OK.