A Cool Monday

Another active weather day is underway with scattered showers and some thunderstorm activity located across southeastern OK this morning.  This active zone is expanding northeast around 35 mph with pockets of moderate rainfall.  A few severe storms have been noted across north Texas early this morning, mainly for some hail.  I don't think we'll be dealing with severe weather across northern OK, but some occasional passing showers will be possible today. 

Expect cloudy and damp conditions with highs in the 50s.  Some scattered showers and possible thunder will persist for the next few hours before the upper air system moves eastward away from the state. Tuesday through Thursday looks very pleasant with improving weather conditions and highs moving back into the 70s.  A slight chance of showers or storms will remain for Thursday, with slightly better chances reserved for the upcoming weekend.

 Temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 50s around the Tulsa metro with slightly higher reading across southern Kansas and slightly lower readings across far southeastern OK.

The coverage of shower activity will be highest in southeastern OK, with lesser coverage across far northeastern OK.  I currently have the Tulsa metro at 50%, but this is subject to some minor fluctuations.

 The GFS and EURO ensembles suggest a mid level wave may brush the central plains Thursday, with a northwest upper air flow from Thursday through the weekend.

The data supports a return to the southwest upper air flow by the early to middle part of next week, which would support a return to a very active weather pattern.

 The month of May usually supports the most active severe weather potential for the state.

 May, on average, features more storms, more rainfall, more hail days, and more tornadoes than any other spring month.  But, this has not been a normal year in any sense of the word, and it's impossible to say with any confidence that May will be more active or less active than the previous month.  I can only pray it's less active across eastern OK and more active across the western third of the state.  Once again, our neighbors along the western third of the state received very little rain this weekend.  Some locations in western OK haven't had meaningful precipitation since last September! 

 Next:

It's hard to underscore the immense damage and destruction that last weeks storms left across the southern U.S. 

 National recovery groups are conducting donation drives for these storm stricken areas.  The American Red Cross always does such a super great job and I've posted a link here incase you would like to make a donation.

http://www.redcross.org/

There may also be local church groups and others that may conduct local drives to take supplies to the storm stricken areas.  As I am made aware of these groups, I'll post information here on my blog.