The 24 hour temperature trace on the right for Tulsa shows what a short thermometer we had today as temperatures held steady at 64 for about 6 hours through the morning and the clouds kept us from getting above 70 during the afternoon. That 64 represents another daily record for warmest low temperature, the second day in a row we have set new records in that category.
But, it is back to the real world on Monday as cooler air is on the way and will be arriving during the late night and morning hours in the form of a cold front. Ahead of the front, southerly winds and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the 60s, but behind the front, northerly winds will quickly drop temperatures into the 40s and perhaps even the upper 30s for some locations. There is also a chance of showers along and immediately behind the front, but most of the upper level energy is way to the north of us so any rain will be brief and very light.
The morning clouds are expected to give way to clearing skies during the afternoon and evening hours which should allow temperatures to rebound at least somewhat. That will set the stage for a clear, cold start to the day on Tuesday followed by another quick warm-up.
Another, stronger system is now coming into better focus for Thursday which will be our next best chance for rain and even some storms. A few showers or storms may occur Wednesday night, but the best chance should be during the day Thursday as another cold front moves across the state. There are still some details that will not be adequately forecast till right before the event, but the synoptic setting certainly suggests at least the possibility of locally very heavy storms and possibly even some severe. Frontal timing will make a huge difference in our daytime temperatures on Thursday, but at least there is a better consensus on the cold front arriving during the day.
That will be followed by another cool-down for Friday and Saturday and possibly getting even cooler on Sunday. Although the longer range guidance has come into better agreement regarding the Thursday system, they rapidly go their separate ways by Sunday and Monday. For the time being, it looks like cooler conditions along with lingering cloud cover and at least a possibility of getting wet will be in the forecast for Sunday and perhaps into Monday as well.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.