A Pleasant Pattern Developing This Week

Monday, August 17th 2020, 7:02 am
By: Alan Crone

TULSA, Okla. -

We're in store for some pleasant mid-August weather as drier air continues filtering southward across most of the state this morning.

The result will be highs Monday afternoon ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s but with no heat index values of concern.

A second surge of drier air will later today bringing even more dry air to the state. We'll experience north winds for the first half of the week before southerly low-level flow returns sometime Wednesday or Thursday with slowly increasing low-level moisture and humidity.

The upper air flow will remain from the north and northwest this entire period and could easily bring a few surprise systems nearby, but the only mention of shower activity at this point will be today across part of northern and southeastern OK and also Wednesday morning, mostly to the west of I-35. By the 2nd half of the weekend, we may eventually need some low-end probabilities for a few storms, but we continue with a dry weekend forecast for now.

The upper air flow is characterized by a strong upper trough across the Midwest to the northeastern US. and a strong mid-level ridge across the desert southward extending northward into the central Rockies. Most mid to long-range model suites suggest this pattern will remain intact for most of the week before the ridge weakens some to the west. The impact for most of our week will be pleasant conditions, but this flow can easily bring a system or two across northeastern OK.

Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today. The 2nd surge of dry air (2nd front) could spark-off a few storms later today as the boundary moves southward. Most data suggest this would be across southcentral OK later this afternoon or evening, but I’ll keep a low 10% cover from highway 412 south. Tuesday morning lows will drop into the lower to mid-60s and afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s with north winds at 10 to 20 mph. Wednesday morning may be the coolest of the week with some valley spots experiencing lows in the upper 50s with the metro in the lower 60s. Highs will stay in the mid-80s Wednesday with north to east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday south winds return with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs in the lower 90s. Temps this weekend will be starting in the upper 60s and lower 70s with afternoon highs reaching the lower 90s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.