A few clouds will arrive at times this morning through midday and a few flurries may be present but most of us will only experience cold weather. Lows will start in the single digits and teens with highs in the mid-20s. A partly cloudy sky is likely before clearing later tonight bringing another very cold start Friday morning with some locations near zero. We are finally turning the corner into some improving weather, but it will take a few days more for most of us to come to that conclusion.
The upper-level pattern will remain progressive for the foreseeable future, meaning we will continue tracking several storm systems across the plains for the next 10 days. But the arctic air we have been experiencing for the past two weeks will finally begin losing its grip and modify with temperatures moving above freezing for daytime highs this weekend. While we are not breaking out the shorts this weekend (at least most of us) we will be making progress eventually into some 50s and 60s by early next week. The first issue will remain the potential for black ice and slick spots this morning and the role of the snowpack on temperatures for the short term.
The brief sun breaks yesterday paid some short-term dividends by making us feel a little better about our time in the deep freeze and of course the latest batch of snow. But it did allow for some very minor melting in a few spots and this will turn to ice for the morning. The major roadways are expected to be in good shape, but secondary roads and those around your neighborhood will be slick in spots. I can also personally attest to slick spots on driveways and sidewalks. Watch out for the slip-and-fall hazards around your house this morning.
A good healthy snowpack acts to keep temperatures much colder much longer than they would normally be under weather parameters such as we’ll be expecting this weekend. What does this mean? I’ve gone ‘under’ the model suggestions for daytime highs with the assumption of snow remaining in some form through Sunday.
A weak surface front arrives Sunday as a strong upper-level wave drops across the country. This will bring a wind shift Sunday from the northwest along with a very low chance for a shower or two. The moisture is expected to remain on the low side, but I’ll keep a 20% chance across the far southeastern OK region. Something we’ll need to watch is early Sunday morning. A few signals in the NAM suites point toward temperatures below freezing Sunday morning for a short window with some drizzle attempting to develop. This seems like a very low probability for now.
Monday the airflow moving from down the Rockies into the northwestern OK region will bring slightly warmer air to the state as it compresses on its way down the plains. This ‘warming’ regime, is of course relative to the past two weeks, but should bring us into the lower 50s Monday and the lower 60s Tuesday. But the party could be short-lived as another front will be nearing the state Wednesday or Thursday of next week with a noticeable cool-down and the potential for some active weather. But we will hold-off on any advertisements for this period today. Yes, we’re getting ready to move into late February and early March, but we still have plenty of time for more cold air. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!