Slowly Increasing Humidity Brings A Few Storms Nearby Soon

Another warm yet pleasant day is expected with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Increasing low-level moisture will bring slightly muggy weather back to the area soon, including the potential for a few showers or storms over the next few days. A stronger system will arrive for part of the weekend with a better chance for storms.

A few showers or storms will be possible later today, mostly across far southeastern OK as low-level moisture returns from Texas into this part of the state. This activity is expected to be rather sparse, but we can’t rule out one or two isolated showers or storms developing across the south as this process occurs during peak-afternoon heating. Highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s today along with southeast winds from 10 to 15 mph. This marks the return of slightly muggy weather across most of central and eastern OK, becoming even more noticeable Thursday into Friday as heat index values climb into the upper 90s to near 103 before another storm system approaches the state from the north with l storm chances into the weekend. A few of the storms this weekend may become strong to severe, but our main threats will be the possibility of locally heavy rainfall in some locations. A surface front is expected to move southward this weekend but may not cross the entire region before either stalling or becoming diffuse Sunday. This boundary will lower our temps slightly Sunday but no major airmass change is expected behind the front.

The main upper-level pattern for the rest of the week will be characterized by a strong and growing midlevel ridge of high pressure across the intermountain region and a developing trough across the upper Midwest to Missouri Valley. The first small disturbance arriving tonight into Wednesday will move into northern OK bringing a few showers and storms near the state. A weak boundary is expected to surge southward but should not survive the trip southward too long. The much stronger upper trough to the north and northeast arrives nearby this weekend and will help to bring a surface front southward into the state Saturday with at least one, possibly two rounds of showers and storms as these features near the state. While stronger wind fields aloft should remain northeast of the state, enough shear and surface instability will allow a mention for a few strong storms late Saturday evening. Precipitable water values will also be increasing during the latter half of the week into the weekend bringing the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in some locations. Our probabilities remain near 30 to 50% for the northern sections as the boundary nears the state late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. The upper airflow will be strong enough to bring the front southward by Sunday morning, but it remains unclear if the front will stay intact as it moves southward Sunday midday to afternoon or if it becomes diffuse by Sunday evening into early Monday. I’m leaning toward a weaker boundary solution and will return our surface winds from the south by Sunday afternoon. The main upper trough will continue to be nearby, and scattered storms will also remain into early next week, at least Monday.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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