Heat Advisories Return As Scattered Storm Chances Remain

We’re not finished with scattered storm chances, but we’ll be nearing the end of this pattern as we move into the weekend as the common denominator will be the increasing heat and humidity growing into early next week. High temps today will reach the lower or even mid-90s with heat index values nearing 105 by early afternoon. A heat advisory may be required for part of the area today and more likely for larger sections of Eastern OK this weekend into early next week. Before the heat takes all the publicity, a weak front will near southern Kansas later tonight before stalling and should bring scattered storms near or north of the highway 412 corridor through Saturday morning. This same area could see a few storms late Saturday evening into Sunday morning, but the chance remains low for this update.

A modest low-level jet is underway this morning across central to northeastern OK into the Missouri Valley and scattered showers and storms will have a chance to develop for the morning hours. Just like the past few days, the scattered nature will keep the probability on the low-end, but any storm activity this morning will produce extremely heavy rainfall in a short amount of time.

After the morning window for scattered storms ends, we’ll start to see partly sunny and humid weather with most locations remaining dry throughout the afternoon and evening. A strong upper-level trough will eject into the northern high plains later tonight through Saturday and help to bring a surface front southward, nearing northwestern OK and southern Kansas through Saturday morning. Storms are likely near and behind this boundary, including the threat for a few strong to severe storms. But most of this should remain north of the metro. Early Saturday morning, there will be an outside chance of a few storms sneaking down across part of northern OK before falling apart as a mid-level ridge of high pressure begins expanding from north Texas into Oklahoma. As this ridge expands, the only chance for any showers or storms should be on the ‘edge’ of the ridge influence. Locations across far northern OK into southeastern kanas and northwestern Arkansas may have a chance at a few storms again late Saturday evening into pre-dawn Sunday. The only outlier to this scenario would be for the front to move more southward than anticipated. Basically, wherever the front ends up, the frontal zone would support at least a mention for storms into part of Saturday. 

Early next week, the ridge should dominate with a stronger flow located across the northern high plains. By the end of the week, another longwave trough moves out of southern Canada and should send a surface front southward, nearing part of the southern plains by next weekend. Until this occurs, it’s the heat and humidity taking the headlines for early next week with heat advisories likely and actual daytime highs nearing or slightly above 100.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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