Heat Issues Increasing This Week

The heat and humidity will take the headlines for the next few days with afternoon highs near 100 and heat index values reaching over 105 to 110. A few highly isolated storms may still develop across extreme southeastern OK, but the overall pattern is going to hold for the entire week, possibly longer. Morning lows will bottom out in the upper 70s offering very little relief with oppressive afternoon humidity combining with highs in the upper 90s to 100 capable of quickly inducing heat stress.

The dominant mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain centered upon the southern and central plains for at least the next 3 to 5 days while stronger westerlies remain well north across the northern high plains. The ridge may weaken some by the end of this week while a weak easterly wave organizes across the southeastern Gulf Coastal states and slowly moves westward. By this weekend, this easterly wave produces some scattered showers and storms from the ArkLaTex into Central Texas but with limited influence across Eastern OK and Western Arkansas. A surface front is expected to develop across the northern to central plains this weekend and may slowly sink southward by the following week. Until this happens, we see no major change in our synoptic pattern that would bring any major changes into the foreseeable future. This means our stretch of hot and humid weather is likely to continue with only very low chances for any shower or storm activity, mostly across extreme southeastern OK due to some highly localized geographical environments that allow for a late afternoon pop-up thunderstorm. These chances remain almost too low to mention but may still occur, even in this pattern.

Local dew points, mostly in the lower to mid-70s due to southerly surface flow and the combination of evapotranspiration from our unusually green vegetation for mid-August will continue to keep heat index values near or above 105 to 110 for the next few days prompting heat advisories from the National Weather Service for most of Eastern OK. Some data support a gradual and minor drying of local dew points as surface winds veer from the southwest the next few days. This small veering of the wind may 'ease' the heat index, but this would also increase the actual daytime high by a degree or two. Bottom line: Heat Stress continues to be a major issue for the next few days. Please remain vigilant and prepare by pre-hydration, wearing heat-resistant clothing, and scheduling extra breaks for those working outside.

The Tropical Atlantic Basin will continue to be active soon with several disturbances potentially growing into systems during the next week. As of this morning, no new named disturbances are being tracked.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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