What a Difference a Year Can Make!

Our day started off with a record low temperature of only 58 degrees, shattering the previous record of 48 set all the way back in 1923. Keep in mind though that we will probably be cooler than 58 by midnight tonight so that will not likely wind up in the record books. The reason is a cool front is on schedule to arrive before midnight shifting our winds back to northerly and bringing a return to at least somewhat cooler conditions, particularly at night.

Even so, the midnight temperature is still expected to be above the previous record for this date and just puts an exclamation point on what has been an extremely mild January. In fact, the average temperature for this January in comparison to January of last year is nearly 10 degrees warmer. In case you are wondering, this is still not the warmest January on record, that distinction is owned by January of 2006 which was nearly 5 degrees warmer than this January has been and ended up with an average temperature that was 12 degrees above normal.

So much for what was, what about what will be. The breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures to soar to near 70 this afternoon, and despite the cool front arriving tonight and a north wind near 10-12 mph, Wednesday will also be quite warm with highs in the 60s. We will be cooler to start the day with lows in the lower 40s, but the lack of any snow pack to our immediate north and plenty of afternoon sunshine should result in another very mild day. The front will stall out south of I-40 and there may even be a few lingering showers in the extreme SE counties during the day Wednesday.

Gusty SE winds will be returning Thursday along with increasing cloud cover so expect temperatures to remain quite mild with lows in the lower 40s and highs back into the 60s. Those stronger SE winds will be in advance of a much stronger storm system that will be pushing across the state on Friday. We will be very warm and humid ahead of it along with strong southerly winds. But, the current projected moisture and temperature profiles aloft suggest a nearly saturated environment so the chances of severe storms will be very limited. However, this does look to be an efficient rain maker as the QPF map on the right indicates an inch or more of rain looks to be a good bet with this system. Even our more western neighbors stand a good chance of receiving some badly needed rains from this system.

It will be followed by gusty northerly winds and cooler conditions for Saturday, but any wintry precipitation that often follows on the backside of storms like this will be well north of us. A few lingering showers may occur into Saturday morning, but in general the weekend and into early next week should see a return to more seasonal temperatures and a rather quiet period.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot