Tracking A Front
The cold front will move into the area later tonight and bring a chance of showers and storms to the area. A few of these may end up being strong to severe during the first few hours of the event, but eventually the activity is expected to be mainly post frontal as the cooler air moves across the northern part of the state.
The air mass ahead of the boundary today is expected to be warm with southwest surface winds allowing temperatures to move into the upper 70s or lower 80s. The main upper level system is a positively tilted trough which typically allows a strong southwest wind from the Mexican Plateau to overrun the southern and central plains in the 3000 to 5000 ft. level. This warmer air acts to CAP the atmosphere from pre-frontal convection for most of the day. As the atmosphere losses daytime heating and the boundary grows closer to the region, the thermal profile of the atmosphere will change and thunderstorms will have a chance to develop. Most of the data had been suggesting only post frontal convection, but the last few runs of both the NAM and some hi resolution WRF data indicate there will be a chance for a few storms to form ahead of the boundary and become quite strong to severe with large hail and wind the main threat. Areas near or northwest of Tulsa between 6pm and 9pm could see a few storms along or slightly ahead of the boundary. The actual front will cross the northern Ok area around 3-4AM pushing through the southeast portion of the state by midday. Any showers or storms tomorrow morning will quickly move to the southeast part of the state and exit by early afternoon.
The temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with highs in the lower 60s. The weekend looks good with cool mornings and mild afternoons.
The upper air pattern will remain quiet for the area until late in the week when additional storm systems will approach the region by late next week. The upper air flow Monday and Tuesday will be from the northwest and can produce a few surprise morning storms, but at this point, we'll keep it dry. The temperatures should also quickly warm next week with morning lows and daytime highs above average.