Tuesday Morning Update
Our weather pattern will remain active for the next few days allowing a front to approach the area Thursday and a stronger system for this weekend. Today our weather appears very nice with mostly sunny and relatively warm conditions. Highs should top out in the mid or upper 60s. But this morning dense fog will be a possibility across the southern half of the state. Visibilities may be very low in some locations and a dense fog advisory will be required for a few hours in these areas. Some fog may attempt to form across northern OK but the chance remains very low.
The fast, mainly zonal flow (west to east) will help to bring a northern stream system across the Dakotas Thursday into Friday and a southern stream system this weekend.
A surface cold front will develop and move across the central and southern plains Thursday with a chance of showers and storms across SE Kansas, Northeastern OK, and portions of NW Ark. Showers and thunderstorms seem likely but the odds of severe weather will remain low as most of the dynamics will remain too far north.
This weekend a stronger upper level system will approach the southern and central plains. A surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across SE Colorado and allow strong south winds Friday into Saturday. This will advance a warm and moist atmosphere into the state setting the stage for thunderstorms sometime Saturday night into Sunday. The exact location and timing of specific storm related parameters will more than likely change several times between today and this weekend, but the "pattern" would support the potential for severe weather with this system. The EURO is more north with the main upper level system and consequently the surface area of low pressure is also northward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This would drag a dry line/cold front across the area Sunday afternoon with thunderstorms likely. The GFS is more southward with the upper level system, and would keep the higher chances for severe weather slightly south of our immediate area.
The GFS-EURO data differ greatly by the early portion of next week. I'll skip the usual discussion of the various scenarios and we'll tackle these systems in the short term.
Our high in Tulsa yesterday end up at 68, well above the forecasted high of 60 to 63, ( You win a few, and loose a few.)
The daily average high is now 51 and the low is 29.
Daily records include a high of 75 from 1942 and 1911. The low is 4 from 1979 and 1905.
I'll be discussing the weather this morning and early afternoon on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliates across the state.
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Have a super great day!