Tuesday Morning Update
We're moving back into a cold and wet weather pattern that will continue through early Thursday morning before more spring-like weather returns Friday into the weekend. Rainfall amounts from 1 to 2.5 inches will be possible across portions of eastern OK beginning with rain chances this morning. Some guidance indicates totals from 2 to 4 inches may be possible in a few locations. Temperatures will remain below the seasonal average for both morning lows and afternoon highs until Friday.
The cold front is now well south of the area and is located across the north Texas region this morning and extreme SE OK. The main upper level feature of interest is located across the intermountain region and will begin to spread "lift" across the area this morning into the afternoon. Moisture will be drawn northward over the cooler air at the surface and rain will develop across a large portion of the state including the Tulsa metro. Scattered thunderstorms will also be a possibility this morning to the southwest of Tulsa and some light sleet could occur for a very brief time period this morning in southern Kansas. The rain is expected to remain today, most of Wednesday, and part of Thursday morning.
The RAW NAM output indicates temps may stay in the lower 40s for most of today and Wednesday before moving back into the lower 50s Thursday afternoon as the rain begins to exit the eastern portion of the state. The surface air flow will remain from the north until late Thursday afternoon and this will also act to keep the temps on the cool side.
Friday the return southerly flow begins to influence the state with morning lows in the 40s moving into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Friday afternoon along with plenty of sunshine. At this point in the forecast cycle, the weekend appears nice with morning lows in the lower to mid-50s and the afternoon highs in the lower to mid-70s.
The EURO and GFS data both support another upper level system moving into the central high plains Sunday into Monday. While most of the dynamic energy will remain north of the state, a short wave of energy will slide near the state allowing for a cold front at the surface to slide southward by the Sunday or Monday time period. This will create a chance of a few showers or storms but the chance will remain near 20% for the period from Sunday into Monday. Higher chances may eventually be needed by Monday into Tuesday.
The long range data indicates the upper air pattern will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft pattern by next week which will bring active weather including thunderstorm chances back to the state.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 12:48PM.
The normal daily average high is 68 and the low is 45.
Our daily records include a high of 89 from 1918 and a low of 22 from 1936.
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