Thursday Morning Update

Expect a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the upper 60s.  Storm chances will be increasing late tonight into Friday.  

Wednesday was absolutely gorgeous with sunshine, light winds and highs in the mid-50s!  It was more like late January than late April, but it was super great.  Today we'll experience another wonderful day with afternoon highs in the upper 60s along with south winds around 10 to 15 mph.  Our next storm system is moving closer to the area and this will increase our clouds later today and bring a slight chance of showers or storms to the region tonight.  The higher chances for showers and storms will arrive Friday with cloudy and cool conditions.  I think our daytime highs will stay around 60 for most of the day tomorrow, and the RAW Nam indicates temps could stay in the upper 50s. 

The main upper level system is located off the Baja this morning but will move eastward quickly today and should begin to open and weaken.  This will cause the surface pressure to fall across the western portion of the panhandle developing a surface area of low pressure somewhere from near Lubbock to the NW OK area.  This low will drop southeast by Friday night into Saturday morning.  South winds will draw moisture northward across the state tomorrow with showers and storms developing at times over the state.  The lack of quality and deep low level moisture should greatly limit the severe weather to areas along the Red River Valley of OK into portions of north TX.  Some model data suggest a few thunderstorms could produce some small hail along or south of the I-40 area, but most of these storms will remain south of the Tulsa area.  Basically, we feel the Friday system will be dominated by showers with some garden variety thunderstorms for northern OK.  I must also stress the timing of the system may still be tweaked during the day.  But at this point, we'll call for the bulk of the storms to occur Friday.  

 A few showers or storms may persist Saturday morning near or southeast of the I-40 corridor for a few hours before decreasing clouds and highs in the mid-70s.  Sunday the temps would have a chance to move to near 80 along with south winds at 10 to 20 mph. 

Next week continues to offer some controversy.  The consensus calls for a few showers or storms Tuesday, but a surface cold front will arrive either Tuesday night into Wednesday, or Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  It's impossible at this moment to offer any confidence on the timing of the midweek system.  The depth of moisture in the atmosphere combined with the expected wind profiles would support the threat of severe weather.  

Something to note:  The EURO(12z run yesterday and the 00Z run today) is bringing another shot of cold air into the state late next week!  Unreal! Now, before we start to spread panic and fear among the masses, take heed:  this solution will change dramatically over the next few runs.  But I wanted to mention what the data is suggesting to highlight just how unusual our weather pattern has been for the past few weeks and possibly how it may unfold during the next week.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 58 recorded at 5:19pm.

The normal daily average high is 75 and the low is 53.

The daily records include a high of 89 from 1939 and 1936 and a low of 36 recorded in the year 1910.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

I'll be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News.

You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather discussions on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the midday time period.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV