Friday Morning Update

Good Morning Friends.  We're expecting another very warm and humid afternoon both today and tomorrow before some potential changes arrive Sunday and early next week.  As posted here yesterday, a possible major pattern change is in the forecast that will bring a cool down along with some rain and storm chances back to the southern plains.

Most of the area this morning will remain precip free and I will not include a chance for showers or storms on the main 7 day planner for today.  I suppose there may be one isolated storm attempting to develop, but mid-level ridging should preclude most convective cells today.  

Today we'll be expecting light southeast winds, partly to mostly sunny conditions, and highs around 98.  The temp heat index values will be nearing 105 to 110 in some locations and another heat advisory will be posted for portions but not all of Eastern OK.  For the exact outline of the heat advisory, take a look at the "Red Bar" located across the top of the main weather page.  This is the area where warnings and watches are posted and updated.  

Air quality issues may also occur and an Ozone Alert has been issued for the Tulsa Metro area.  Residents with serious respiratory issues may be impacted by the poor air quality later today. 

The massive mid-level ridge anchored to our west will begin to change shape and slide slightly northward this weekend.  Another ridge of high pressure off the East coast will also form.  An upper level trough of low pressure is expected to develop at the base of the current long wave trough along the east coast.  This low is forecasted to retro-grade or move westward into our area by Sunday and early next week.  This is a highly unusual pattern change for the middle of July, but it's also a pattern that could be very beneficial for our area with rain-storm chances and a significant cool down compared to the last two weeks.  Some of the computer model suggestions would take our highs down into the upper 80s near 90 Sunday into early next week while another set of data would suggest even cooler air with highs Monday and Tuesday in the lower or mid-80s.  Morning lows would also drop into the mid and upper 60s for many locations for the first part of next week. 

Thursday and Friday the data diverges on the demise of the system but regardless of the exact path, the temps will begin to slowly climb and the rain and storm chances will diminish.

Regarding the precipitation chances for Sunday through Wednesday.  We are going to remain conservative and cautious with our probabilities at this point in the forecast cycle.  We need to communicate the chance for showers and storms but we need to monitor the data for run to run consistency before adding significant chances to the area.  Some of the model data is very bullish with rain and storms for the area while others are not so generous.  As stated above, this forecasted pattern is odd for July.  Slow and steady seems to be a good course of action for now.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was all the way to 102 at 2:28pm.   Our normal daily average high is 93 and the low is 73.  Our daily records include a high of109 from 1954 and a low of 59 from both 1975 and 1953.

No rain fell at the official rain measuring location for Tulsa yesterday.  Most locations across Eastern and Southeastern OK remained dry.

Precip for the year is now at 15.57 inches.  This is now -6.57 inches below the normal precipitation to date of 22.54 inches.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
Twitter@alancrone

I'll be discussing the forecast this morning on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan CRONE

KOTV