TULSA, Oklahoma - Good morning. We're tracking an area of low pressure across the southern portion of Louisiana this morning as it moves northeast.   This surface low will lift northeast and impact portions of Arkansas with a chance for rain and thunderstorm activity late tonight and Tuesday. There will continue to be a slight chance for a few showers late tonight into Tuesday morning across extreme eastern Oklahoma but the higher probability will remain across Western and Central Arkansas.  The chance for eastern OK remains low, but a few showers may be possible.

The upper air flow should bring a cold front into the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday with another very slight chance of showers.  This will result in north winds and cool air for the middle and the end of the week. Temperatures today through Wednesday will be in the upper 60s in a few lower 70s for afternoon highs.   The main impact for the frontal boundary pushing through the area Wednesday will be noticed with cooler morning lows Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be dropping into the middle and upper 40s for both of these mornings.

The upper air flow will be come from the southwest late Thursday and Friday and continue through the weekend. The strong southwestern upper air trough will slowly move eastward by this weekend resulting in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances for the weekend but some differences continue with the exact positioning of surface features.   GFS data keeps the region in the rain for the weekend while EURO is slightly southward.   Our forecast will offer a compromise solution. 

A surface area of low pressure may develop Thursday across part of Northwestern Oklahoma or southwestern Kansas.   Gusty south winds will increase late Thursday afternoon helping to bring moisture back across the state.   Some showers and storms will be possible Friday with south winds and highs in the mid to upper 60s.  

A surface low should develop somewhere across central or northern Texas Saturday and Sunday bringing rain back near the area.   Our forecast will keep slight mentions for the weekend at this point, but these pops will more than likely increase, at least for the southern sections of the area.   Stay tuned.   The timing of this system may impact Halloween and fall family festival activities Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, but it's too early to pinpoint the exact timing at this point in the forecast cycle.

Temperatures today will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with partly cloudy conditions by afternoon. 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog. Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

 KOTV weather.