Alan Crone Weather Blog: Overnight Thunderstorms Expected

Our main focus will be late tonight into the first part of Tuesday morning as a strong upper level system will be moving across the state bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the area. Some of the storms may be severe with golf ball sized hail a possibility. Some gusty to strong winds will be possible with some thunderstorm activity.  

Temperatures today will remain above the seasonal average with highs in the lower 70s. Cooler air will arrive behind the front Tuesday along with strong northwest winds. Temperatures will moderate for the rest of the week with another system arriving Thursday morning with a slight chance of showers. 

A cold front passed the area yesterday and is located to our southeast this morning. We’re experiencing northeast winds and dry air this morning.   But winds will quickly return from the south to southeast later this afternoon with highs in the lower 70s. Low level moisture is expected to quickly return later tonight in the form of upper 50s and lower 60s dew point temperatures.

As the strong upper level system nears the area, a surface area of low pressure will develop across western OK this evening and quickly move eastward into eastern OK by pre-dawn Tuesday.  A surface boundary (cold front) will develop and move east and southeast.   Showers and storms will more than likely develop across central OK around midnight and move eastward into eastern OK.  

The temperature profile aloft will support very cold air in the mid to upper levels but a small temperature inversion around 5kt ft region should act to keep thunderstorms slightly elevated for this event. The wind shear profile will support rotating updrafts but the elevated nature of the storms will more than likely keep the main threat of the evening confined to hail production. Some strong winds may also be possible

As the system leaves the area early tomorrow morning, showers and storms will quickly exit the area.   Temperatures tomorrow will start in the upper 40s and top out in the mid-50s for daytime highs along with strong north to northwest winds at 25 to 40 mph.

Wednesday morning lows in the mid-30s will be followed by highs in the mid-60s.    South to southwest winds will return Wednesday before a fast moving upper level system will near the area Wednesday night.   This will bring a few showers into the eastern part of the state by Thursday morning, but the coverage is expected to remain low due to the lack of significant low level moisture.

Thursday morning lows will start in the 40s and end near 60 with north winds.

Friday into the weekend should feature lows in the 30s and 40s with Fridays highs near 60s and this weekend highs in the upper 60s.   Data now suggest a slight chance for a shower or two Sunday as stronger south winds return to the area.   I’ll keep this pop very low for this forecast update.

Another strong system may approach early next week.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone