Records Set Today, Likely Again Thursday.

Sunny skies, a southerly breeze, and dry air in place produced record daytime high temperatures this afternoon for many locations here in E OK and NW Ark.  Along with the record high temperatures were minimum relative humidity levels that were below the 30% level at times this afternoon.  For the record, the max/min temperature for Tulsa today was 84/45 and the 84 breaks the previous record of 83 set back in 1963.  By the way, the normal values at this time of year are 61/39.

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For tonight, despite fair skies our winds will keep temperatures from cooling off much since those winds will not be calming down as usual.  In fact, look for southerly winds to be picking up to 10-20 mph by morning and that will keep temperatures from dropping much below 60 to start the day Thursday.  In other words, our morning low will be close to what our normal daytime high is for this time of year and that would set a record for warmest morning low. 

Given the warm start, we will likely set daytime high records again for Thursday afternoon since the record for tomorrow is 80 and temperatures should reach the lower 80s.  The main limitation is the amount of high level cirrus clouds that will be streaming this way which may keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.  The other issue for Thursday will be strong, gusty southerly winds blowing at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 or more and that will create a high fire danger situation.  Even though much of the vegetation is still green, the time of year means the vegetation is starting to go dormant and the dryness associated with the expanding drought situation is not helping matters either.  In other words, even though the grass looks green, it would not take much to get a fire started and with humidity values dropping into the 30% range along with the strength of the winds could cause problems.

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Big changes will be occurring on Friday as a strong cold front will be pushing across the state Thursday night followed by gusty NW winds bringing much cooler, drier air back over the state.  There is a chance of showers/storms ahead of the front but most of what falls is expected to be over the more E/SE counties and amounts even there look to be very light as you can see on the QPF map.

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Temperatures will be in the 60s ahead of the front, then as the winds shift to the NW temperatures will quickly drop into the lower 50s.  Lots of sunshine will offset those NW winds somewhat and temperatures may recover slightly during the middle of the day, but will be falling quickly that evening.  That will be followed by the coldest night so far with most locations at or below freezing to start the day Saturday.  Sunny skies all day will bring afternoon temperatures back into the low-mid 50s along with a light northerly wind.

As you can see on our forecast page, freezing temperatures are also likely to start the day on Sunday followed by a nice rebound that afternoon into the following week as our winds return to a southerly direction.  In fact, temperatures will be back above normal throughout Thanksgiving week.  Another weak boundary looks to arrive early Wednesday along with a chance of showers ahead of it on Tuesday.  However, that system will not have much of a cool-down and Thanksgiving Day is still looking very pleasant with fair to partly cloudy skies and above normal temperatures.  Current data runs suggest morning lows in the lower 40s and afternoon highs in the low-mid 60s for Thanksgiving Day.  It will certainly be warmer than the 57/36 that is normal.

The above normal temperatures also look to be the general rule beyond that time frame as the 8-14 day outlook keeps us in the warmer than normal category.  Unfortunately, it also keeps us in the dry category and we do need moisture.

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By the way, the unusually warm Oct/Nov time frame this year now has us as the 3rd  warmest Oct-Nov on record and the 4th warmest Nov on record.  That has also pushed us into second place for the warmest year to date; behind only 2012 which was the warmest ever.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot