TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re about 24 hours away from the coldest air we’ve experienced in at least two years, possibly longer, as the powerful arctic front plows across the state.   We’re currently in the warm sector of the system with south winds increasing across the state.   

This will possibly bring some drizzle or a few showers into the area this morning through midday even though most folks will remain dry.   The temperatures will continue climbing through the day with readings this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.  We’ll be moving into the 50s by later today and possibly nearing or slightly over 60 by the 10 p.m. period tonight.  While the main impact from this front will be the cold air and strong winds, there will remain a chance for some light accumulation of snow across part of eastern OK Saturday afternoon and evening.   

A strong area of low pressure is developing across southeastern Colorado and will eject into western Kansas soon.   Strong south winds will continue to bring warm air into the state with some of our neighbors across western OK moving into the upper 60s or lower 70s later today and tonight.   

The timing of the front has not changed significantly from earlier data and should arrive early tomorrow morning across northeastern OK and advance through southeastern OK by the midday period.   The temps tomorrow morning will be in the lower 40s in the metro between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. and then falling rapidly into the lower 20s by early afternoon.   

It’s likely that locations across southern OK may wake up with upper 50s before the front arrives mid-morning with the temperature plummeting by early afternoon.   Strong north winds will develop from 20 to 30 mph with the frontal passage.

The potential for snowfall will remain with this system but the moisture content and ratio to snow is expected to yield insignificant amounts with a dusting to near 1 inch possible for the areas of eastern OK and the Tulsa metro.   

A more concentrated area of snowfall may develop either across northwestern OK or south-central Kansas across the far northern OK areas near Bartlesville with some 1 to 2-inch snowfall possible.  A winter weather advisory will be issued for these areas and may be expanded southward during the weekend.   The combination of strong north winds and the snow showers will result in blowing snow by midday to afternoon across northeastern OK before ending by 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. across southeastern or east-central OK. 

Clearing sky and cold air advection will result in single digit lows Sunday morning across most of northeastern OK with wind chill values from 0 to -12.  These readings will result in wind chill advisories for some locations.   Despite full sunshine Sunday the cold air will be hard to scour with daytime highs only in the upper teens to lower 20s for eastern OK, including the Tulsa metro.   Monday morning's lows from 5 to 10 degrees will move into the lower 30s by afternoon along with sunshine and northeast winds.

The data continue to diverge greatly with what happens for the middle to the end of next week and could have major impacts on the Christmas Holiday weekend. The main trend will be gradually warming temperatures Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, possibly Friday with highs moving into the mid and upper 40s. We may have a system nearing the area Wednesday or Thursdays with some low precipitation chances but for now we’ll keep this period dry.  There may be a stronger system with more cold air and precipitation nearing the state by the end of the Christmas Holiday weekend.   Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone