TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re in fine shape this morning with temps in the upper 40s and upper 50s along with some patchy fog in a few of the valleys.   We’re anticipating sunshine for the day with highs in the mid to upper-70s along with north winds around 10 to 15 before the clouds increase later this evening.   Keep the rain gear handy. 

We’re tracking two separate storm systems that will bring rain chances back to the state, including the first chance later tonight into Wednesday morning.   The second storm system will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning with a fast-moving front.  Severe weather is not expected across our region due to the lack of moisture convergence along the front tonight.  Most, it not all our precip with this first system will be post frontal with low instability.   Any convergence should be across far southwestern Oklahoma into the western areas of North Texas where a few strong to near severe storms would possible.  The second upper level system in the northwest flow will shove a second front quickly across the state Thursday night into Friday morning with a few showers or storms but the coverage is expected to remain low.  As this system exits the area late Thursday night or early Friday morning we’ll begin a warming trend that will eventually feature highs approaching 80 Sunday along with the return of south winds this weekend.

The upper level pattern is expected to change this weekend into next week.  A major trough will deepen across the western U.S. as a southwesterly flow aloft pattern develops across the southern and central plains.  This pattern will bring us a few chances for storms next week, including the threats of strong to severe thunderstorms for part of the state.   Again, this is based on the pattern recognition and not any individual model specifics at this point.  We’ll be refining the forecast for next week as the data and time draws closer to the southern plains, but we do eventually anticipate active weather with several days of storm chances.

In the meantime, enjoy today's pleasant weather before our next chance of rain arrives overnight into pre-dawn Wednesday morning.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.