TULSA, Oklahoma - Temps are back down into the cellar this morning with most locations reporting the lower teens north and the upper teens to lower 20s around the metro southward.  These readings will more than likely be the coldest of season for some but not all the northern sections this morning.  Winds are generally light.  A 10 mph breeze would drop us quickly into the single digit wind chills this morning.  Later today we’ll make some progress compared to yesterday’s highs but will continue to be rather cold with highs in the upper 30s east and some lower 40s west.  The main upper level trough that brought the snow and cold air to the state is very close to eastern Oklahoma and should produce some clouds this morning into later today along the eastern quadrant of the state while western sections will remain sunny.  The metro may on the boundary of some clouds but will call it mostly sunny with highs later today near the upper 30s or lower 40s. We’ll place a 38 on the map for the metro.

Early this morning locations across far southeastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas may experience a few flurries under the cloud deck.  The atmosphere is relatively dry, but I wouldn’t be shocked to get reports of some flurries in these areas roughly from McAlester eastward to the Arkansas state line and southward into the ArkLaTex.

Thursday the main upper trough will eject into the Missouri Valley into the Midwest while Oklahoma will remain on the backside of the departing wave.  Southerly surface winds will return with cold morning temps in the 20s reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday afternoon along with sunshine across most of the state. 

The 12kNAM is throwing a knuckle ball for Friday and bringing another shallow cold front across the region during the morning hours.  This would ruin the warm-up party for Friday and require a big change for daytime temps.  This model is typically good with shallow air masses.  But it is currently the outlier in the model suite and I’ll need to give it another run or two before making any big changes for Friday.  For now, here’s the plan for Friday.  The morning lows may be near or slightly above freezing with daytime highs reaching the lower 60s before our next front moves across the state Saturday bringing colder weather back into Oklahoma Saturday evening into Sunday.  Saturday morning lows would be near 40 with highs in the mid to upper 50s with increasing clouds by midday to evening.  The system will bring another surface front across the state Saturday night with a very slight chance of light showers late Saturday evening into pre-dawn Sunday and a notable cool-down.   We’ll start pre-dawn Sunday into the lower 40s and level off into the mid or upper 30s for most of Sunday. 

The QPF with this system is extremely low around the metro with some better chances for some light rain across southeastern Oklahoma.  The EURO is a little colder and faster with the system and could provide a very small strip of freezing drizzle or light showers northwest of the I-44 corridor early Sunday morning for an hour or two.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.