TULSA, Oklahoma - Another unseasonably cool morning will lead to a pleasant afternoon by June standards. Lows in the 50s are underway now with afternoon highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s and mostly sunny conditions until later this afternoon.  Things will change quickly later tonight with a chance for a few showers or storms approaching our area through early Friday morning.  The pattern change will bring warm and windy weather back to the state Friday with highs in the mid-80s.  Saturday should be the warmest with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with heat index values in the mid-90s.  The pattern change will also bring additional storm chances across the state with higher chances Sunday into early next week including the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to antecedent conditions across eastern OK. 

 

A surface ridge of high pressure located across northern OK into southern Kansas will slowly migrate eastward by the afternoon as a weak mid-level disturbance approaches from the western U.S.  Pressure falls will occur across the western half of the plains by midday with a surface low developing across southeastern Colorado this evening.  Relatively dry air in the form of low dew point temps will remain across eastern OK with slightly higher levels moving across the far western sections of the state later this evening where a few showers or storms will develop.  Overnight into early Friday morning a few of these scattered storms will be moving near or into northeastern OK.  These storms are expected to remain elevated and severe weather is unlikely.   A few lingering spotty showers will be possible Friday morning, but gusty south winds and warmer weather will quickly develop with Friday afternoon highs in the mid-80s along with south winds from 20 to 30 mph.  Local dew points will slowly increase with heat index values nearing the upper 80s Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday morning another disturbance will near with a few additional showers or storms possible, mostly across far northern OK and southern Kansas.  A layer of warm air aloft is expected to strengthen across most of southern OK and north Texas during this time and spread northward during the day Saturday.  This should effectively keep most of Saturday dry but with warm and muggy weather.  Afternoon highs should reach 90 with heat index values in the mid-90s along with gusty south to southwest winds from 15 to 30 mph. 

The remainder of the forecast is based mostly on a pattern process at this point and not exactly output from any specific model.  This pattern will support rain and storm chances Sunday through at least Wednesday and possibly into the end of next week.  Timing and exact location and amounts will be refined over the next few days, but the pattern would suggest heavy rainfall potential that may lead to flash flooding.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

 

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone