Back to summer today.  Gusty south winds increasing speeds from 15 to 25 mph will expedite warmer and muggy weather back across eastern OK after remaining in the upper 70s and lower 80s yesterday afternoon.  Our highs today should reach the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values nearing 100.  Another cold front will approach the region later tonight into Saturday morning, but the latest data keeps the boundary to our north or northwest.  A weak disturbance in the upper air flow will be nearing helping to trigger showers and storms across part the area through Saturday afternoon or early evening.  The higher coverage should remain removed from most of our areas, but I’ll need to keep a chance for some thunderstorm activity Saturday, including midday to afternoon from the metro to the north and northwest.  Unfortunately, the weather pattern should keep the summer-like weather entrenched across the plains into early next week before a stronger cold front may near the area late next week.  We continue to struggle with the evolution of our mean upper level pattern across the plains with the westerlies remaining well north.  This is supporting much colder weather across the pacific northwest and warmer weather across the southern and eastern United States for the next few days.

The main upper level flow has a powerful trough diving down from the Pacific northwest into Idaho and Montana this evening with a closed low across the desert southwest.  This southwest cutoff will weaken and open (shear) as it gets kicked by the main trough moving across the northern plains this weekend.  As the energy approaches the plains, scattered storms will develop in the vicinity of the above-mentioned front to our north with some severe thunderstorm threats across Kansas later this evening.  Winter weather lovers will take note of the powerful system moving through Montana tonight, more than likely producing a historic September blizzard with snow totals nearing 50 inches in the mountains and 15 to 30 inches in the central plains of Montana. 

As the remnant of the southwest low passes our area Saturday midday to afternoon a few scattered storms will be possible, but the coverage is expected to be low.  I’ll keep a decent chance from the I-44 corridor region into northern OK and southern Kansas for the midday to late afternoon or even early evening.  A few could be severe. 

A mid-level ridge of high pressure will quickly build into the state Monday through Wednesday keeping any active weather slightly north and west while keeping the above average temperatures in place for next week.  The ridge may flatten some Thursday into Friday with a chance for a few storms and the possibility of a front nearing the state.  This front has continued to show consistency in the data nearing the state, but the magnitude of potential cool-down has once again decreased.  We’ll introduce a chance for a few storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning with Thursday afternoon highs in the 70s.  For now. 

 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone