TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re looking at another warm and humid afternoon across the region today with a strong ridge of high pressure centered slightly to our east.  This will keep some active weather on the fringe of the ridge, mostly across extreme western OK for the next few days before the ridge flattens as a storm system nears the plains for the middle of the week.  This will bring a cold front into the state Wednesday night or Thursday morning with storm chances followed by a noticeable cool-down for the 2nd half of the week.  A stronger front may also cross the area sometime this weekend with additional rain and storm chances and cooler weather Sunday.  Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to near 90 along with gusty south winds from 15 to 25 mph.  The heat index values both today and tomorrow will range into the mid to upper 90s along with occasional passing clouds in the sunshine.

 The main upper flow has a strong upper level trough across the western U.S. this morning that will move eastward across the northern plains Tuesday into Wednesday.  This system moves across the upper Midwest Thursday while the trailing end of the trough will brush the southern plains late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  A surface front is likely to move across the area during this period with some storms near the boundary.  The greater upper support will be north of the state, but a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Wednesday evening across southern Kansas and possibly far northern OK as the front moves into the area.   This front should cross the region pre-dawn Thursday with north winds and cooler weather following the frontal passage.  Morning lows Thursday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s across southeastern Kansas, the lower 70s near the Tulsa metro, and the upper 70s to lower 80s across southeastern OK.  North winds will be likely Thursday in the 10 to 15 mph range.

 Friday into Saturday another system will be developing across the pacific northwest and should rapidly drop into the upper flow moving across the central U.S. Saturday or Sunday.  This will cause a quick return of south winds Friday night into Saturday morning and should allow a chance for a few scattered showers or storms Friday into the early Saturday.  By Saturday afternoon or evening, the upper system will move across the northern Plains into southern Canada while shoving another cold front southward into Oklahoma.  The data diverge on the timing and storm chances, but for this update, we’ll have another decent chance for a few storms Saturday evening into part of Sunday.

Highs today and tomorrow will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s along with gusty winds and heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Wednesdays highs will also reach the upper 80s and lower 90s with the front bringing Thursday morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  A chance for storms will remain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  Thursday afternoon highs will reach the lower 70s.

Friday morning starts in the upper 50s in the metro and mid-50s elsewhere with afternoon highs in the lower 70s.   A slight chance of showers and storms will remain Friday.

Weekend temperatures will be in the lower 60s for morning and highs Saturday near 80 and Sunday into the lower 70s.   There will be chances for storms Saturday and Sunday.

 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

 

Alan Crone